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THE TORINO IMPACT HAZARD SCALE |
Assessing Asteroid And Comet Impact Hazard Predictions In The
21st Century
No Hazard
(White Zone) |
0 |
The likelihood of a collision
is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to
small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere
as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.
|
Normal
(Green Zone) |
1 |
A routine discovery
in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual
level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision
is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public
concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment
to Level 0. |
Meriting Attention
by Astronomers
(Yellow Zone) |
2 |
A discovery, which may
become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat
close but not highly unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting
attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention
or public concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. New telescopic
observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
|
3 |
A close encounter, meriting
attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater
chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely,
new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level
0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the
encounter is less than a decade away. |
4 |
A close encounter, meriting
attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater
chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely,
new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level
0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the
encounter is less than a decade away. |
Threatening
(Orange Zone) |
5 |
A close encounter posing
a serious, but still uncertain threat of regional devastation. Critical
attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether
or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than a decade
away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted.
|
6 |
A close encounter by
a large object posing a serious but still uncertain threat of a
global catastrophe. Critical attention by astronomers is needed
to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur.
If the encounter is less than three decades away, governmental contingency
planning may be warranted. |
7 |
A very close encounter
by a large object, which if occurring this century, poses an unprecedented
but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. For such a threat
in this century, international contingency planning is warranted,
especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether or not
a collision will occur. |
Certain Collisions
(Red Zone) |
8 |
A collision is certain,
capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land
or possibly a tsunami if close offshore. Such events occur on average
between once per 50 years and once per several 1000 years.
|
9 |
A collision is certain,
capable of causing unprecedented regional devastation for a land
impact or the threat of a major tsunami for an ocean impact. Such
events occur on average between once per 10,000 years and once per
100,000 years. |
10 |
A collision is certain,
capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten
the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land
or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or
less often. |
Note: the Torino Scale was recently revised according to this
recent publication:
Morrison, D., Chapman, C. R., Steel, D., and Binzel R. P.
"Impacts and the Public: Communicating the Nature of the Impact Hazard"
In Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids,(M.J.S. Belton, T.H.
Morgan, N.H. Samarasinha and D.K. Yeomans, Eds), Cambridge University
Press, 2004.
A graphic of the Torino Scale is also available here:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/images/torino_scale.jpg
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