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Cosmetic Changes: The Argentine Economy After the 2007 Elections An Argentinean and a senior research associate at liberal think tanks in both Buenos Aires and Washington DC, Alan Cibils has an intimate knowledge of his country's economy. Commenting on the changeover in Argentina from the presidency of Nestor Kirchner to that of his wife, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK), who won a comfortable victory in the November elections, Cibils maintains that, although she campaigned for "change," she does not seem to want other than cosmetic changes. He credits her husband, Nestor, with using "heterodox" macroeconomic policies to achieve Argentina's recovery from the major economic crisis of 2001-2002. By this, he means policies at odds with those recommended by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Though he blames Nestor for keeping in place Argentina's old "neoliberalism" and corruption, he also credits him with a respectable economic growth rate, attributable to such policies as an exchange rate permitted to float within limits, a sound monetary policy, and building a fiscal surplus. Cibils says that it is hard to know where Argentina stands economically because of its manipulation and distortion of data, such as the actual inflation rate and current levels of poverty and unemployment. He also describes what he calls a "deepening disregard for the country's democratic institutions," such as Nestor's practice of governing by decree. Cibils does not foresee CFK making policy changes that would deal with such things as high levels of unemployment, poverty, hunger, and mal-distribution of income. Nor will she address the energy crisis, which subjects Buenos Aires to rolling blackouts. In short, the writer sees the new president as someone who will continue her husband's policies, to the long-term detriment of Argentina. |
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