UNDERSTANDING KENYA
http://www.fpri.org/enotes/200801.jones.understandingkenya.html
By Garrett Jones (Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute—FPRI)
Reviewed by William Lefes (Retired Mission Director, USAID)

In this FPRI E-Note, Garret Jones, formerly a CIA case officer in Africa, clearly describes the situation following a reasonably orderly election in Kenya: President Mwai Kibaki's forces engaged in electoral skullduggery to return to office an incumbent whose performance had been less than exemplary, to include rampant corruption and, most egregious of all, disowning the 2002 pre-election accord allowing Raila Odinga, the Luo presidential candidate, to share power as prime minister.

The Kenya constitution requires that the winner prevail in a certain number of provinces. As the announcement of results began, it became obvious that Odinga would win; Kibaki's constituencies could not carry him to victory. When he nevertheless claimed victory and was immediately sworn in as president, the sky fell. The killing and torching began in earnest, particularly in Luo homelands on which the Kikuyu had encroached over the past several decades. Thieves and looters soon joined the fray. Nor did it help that Kibaki promptly announced major cabinet appointments that ensconced him with the Kikuyu "Mt. Kenya mafia," which has a firm grip on the levers of power and will likely ensure that he remains as president, despite pressure from Western aid donors.

Though Jones correctly asserts that Kibaki stole the election, that outcome represents nothing unusual. The "victor" in this case, however, lacked the sensitivity to ensure that the "loser" received a place at the table. For years, Kenyatta, the first president, also a Kikuyu, parceled out scholarships to Lou candidates. His successor, Daniel Arap Moi, a member of the small Kalenjin tribe in western Kenya, formed a coalition with the Luo and other tribes, which permitted him to withstand Kikuyu political pressure for two decades.

Jones accuses the Kikuyu of racism. Given that the Luo and Massai originated from Nilotic speakers in the southern Sudan and the Kikuyu originally came from West Africa, one can make that case. I believe it more accurate to lay the burden on "national" interests. Most of the tribes in Africa have values and structures akin to national entities, and the larger ones operated as nations before the colonial area. Based on fifteen years' service in Africa, I conclude that only diplomacy and education can bring about mutual understanding and respect.