Cuba after Fidel
http://www.afsa.org/fsj/oct08/cubaAfter.pdf
By George Gedda                                                                 
Reviewed by J. Edgar Williams

In the October issue of the Foreign Service Journal, George Gedda, recently retired as the State Department correspondent of the Associated Press, gives readers a look at how things have gone in Cuba since Fidel Castro handed power to his brother, Raul, earlier this year. In addition to reviewing the prospects for Cuba's future, especially its relations with the United States, Gedda also goes back to 1960 to summarize the history of Cuba's actions and U.S. responses. Although little has changed on the ground in Cuba, he observes that the Fidel-Raul faithful grow happier with each bad thing that befalls the United States.

Venezuela, under Hugo Chavez, has virtually replaced the subsidies that formerly came from the Soviets, and China also supports Cuba to some degree. Even so, ordinary Cuban workers remain discontented by low salaries, the housing shortage, inflation, food shortages, and more. Nor have reform measures announced by Raul shortly after taking office been implemented. A great many Cubans want internet access, but this is denied them because it would "disseminate subversive ideas."

The writer tells us of the debate regarding which most hurts Cuba: the U.S. embargo (though food and medical exports were legalized some years ago) or the Castro regime's long-standing dedication to fundamentalist socialism, which discourages production. He points out that the U.S. embargo (which the Castro followers – including those in the United States – falsely call a "blockade") has been politically useful to the Cuban regime. A large, hostile neighbor serves as a rallying point for "revolutionary solidarity." The Cuban regime has also been very clever in regularly winning UN approval for resolutions calling for an end to the embargo – all despite the fact that Cuba trades freely with the rest of the world.

In his review of U.S. - Cuban relations since the Sixties, Gedda reminds us of the Cuban military incursions into Africa (which the UN overlooked), the political influence of Cuban-Americans (especially in the key state of Florida), and the fact that most of Cuba's residents who are better off have achieved that status because of relatives in the United States who send or bring them money.

Gedda also points out that international attention to human rights focuses less on Cuba's political prisoners than on the remaining U.S. prisoners at Guantanamo. He believes it unlikely that any U.S. administration would lift the embargo without considerable political reforms in Cuba. Both Obama and McCain support the embargo, but Obama has offered to meet with Raul Castro without pre-conditions.

This article is an excellent summary of where things stand between the United States and Cuba, and is well worth reading.