EARLY PROSPECTS FOR THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S STRATEGIC AGENDA WITH CHINA
http://www.fpri.org/enotes/200904.shambaugh.obamastrategicagendachina.html
By David Shambaugh
Reviewed by John Sylvester

That President Obama has inherited a sensible China policy from his predecessor, and will undoubtedly continue it, is the main point of a solid Foreign Policy Research Institute article by Dr. Shambaugh, a professor at George Washington University and a fellow at the Brookings Institution.

He notes that the “Sino-American relationship appears to be the best it has been in the twenty years since the traumatizing Tiananmen events of 1989.” The Bush administration pressed China to become a “responsible international stakeholder” and initiated the dialogue to help make it happen. The effort to cooperate with China, though, has been paralleled by wariness in Washington over China’s military modernization and lack of clarity on its strategic ambitions.

Shambaugh describes Secretary Clinton’s initial visit to Beijing, during which she called for continuity in a “positive and cooperative relationship.” She specified the issues as climate change, energy, arms control, and global financial stability. Besides specifically the North Korean ambition for nuclear weapons, the other numerous problems include currency manipulation, maritime security, Iran, Darfur, and, of course, Taiwan. Shambaugh  notes, in addition, the improvement in ties across the Taiwan Straits under the new president, Ma Ying-cheou.

He calls for the U.S. to initiate a formal trilateral dialogue between our country, China, and Japan, pointing out the improvement in the bilateral relations of the two Asian giants and the indicated willingness of the two governments to do this.

Shambaugh ends saying: “there is perhaps no more important relationship for the Obama administration to manage, simply because China is now a global actor in so many areas and as such Washington’s and Beijing’s interest and equities coincide. The task at hand will be to cooperate to a maximum extent, minimize competition, and avoid conflict.”

He sums it up well, with some air of optimism. Whether that will prove true will depend both on what Beijing does, and what President Obama can do in the face of the pressure from the right for containment of China and from elements of the Democratic Party for higher priority in China policy for human rights and for protection for American workers and industry.