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China-U.S. Strategic Stability At a recent conference at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Robert Pfaltzgraff, a prolific writer on international politics, discussed the prospects for U.S.-Chinese strategic stability. Pfaltzgraff defined strategic stability as a relationship characterized by “reliability and dependability of behavior.” “A stable strategic relationship,” he explained, “is one in which both sides gain knowledge about each other’s strategy such that they gain increased confidence that neither will dramatically alter the relationship…” Pfaltzgraff made clear that while China and the United States are economically intertwined, they nevertheless are strategic competitors. The fundamental source of that competition, he noted, can be traced to Thucydides: “the clash between an existing great power and an aspirant great power.” One of China’s long-term goals, according to Pfaltzgraff, is to achieve dominance in the Asia-Pacific region as “a springboard to growing global influence.” The United States, on the other hand, seeks to retain its position of dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. Those incompatible long-term goals cannot be negotiated or wished away. Pfaltzgraff warned that Chinese military programs – especially anti-space warfare, anti-ship weapons, cyber technologies, and their nuclear build-up – are designed to exploit the vulnerabilities of the technologically-superior Americans. The United States, therefore, should focus on reducing such vulnerabilities by placing greater emphasis on missile defense, extended deterrence to allies in the region, robust strategic nuclear deterrence, and power projection capabilities. Nothing can guarantee or ensure strategic stability between countries, but Pfaltzgraff understands that an understanding of each others’ interests and goals is a necessary foundation to build and maintain a stable relationship.
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