Searching for Consensus in Cross-Strait Relations: Building Bridges Among the Next Generation
By Chen Shiuan-Ju,  Pacific Forum CSIS Vasey Fellow
Reviewed by Ambassador Joe O. Rogers
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/issuesinsights_v09n04.pdf

In her insightful “Searching for Consensus in Cross-Strait Relations,” Chen Shiuan-Ju provides an excellent analysis of the attitudes of the generation of Chinese and Taiwanese that will determine the path of reunification. She readies the reader for understanding these attitudes with a succinct and very helpful history of recent cross-Strait relations and political events. 

Chen’s review of recent polling and survey data leads her to draw some interesting dichotomies between the younger generations of Taiwan and Mainland China. She finds the Mainlanders to be not politically active but nationalistic and ideological in their approach to Taiwan -- they see themselves as Chinese. They view reunification as essential to the process of healing the humiliations of the 19th and 20th centuries but do not see it as having an impact on their individual lives. For this reason, they take a long-term view of cross-Strait relations.

The younger generation on Taiwan she finds to be more politically active but approaching cross-Strait issues from a very pragmatic viewpoint. Development of better relations with the Mainland is essential to their continued economic prosperity, and any slowing of investment and trade across the Strait would have an immediate, personal impact. They, therefore, have a more short-term view of cross-Strait relations. They do not consider the symbolic significance of reunification in the way Mainlanders do, nor do they see the issue in nationalistic terms -- they see themselves first as Taiwanese, then Chinese.

Chen concludes that these differences in identity and benefits lead those on Taiwan to be very concerned about the process of negotiation because each opening increases their personal expectations. Mainlanders care little for the process as the personal impacts are patriotic and ideological rather than material, and the day-to-day process therefore matters little as long as the path leads to reunification.

Where Chen falls short is in her “suggestions” for ways to “promote mutual understanding.” Her suggestions comprise a list of quasi-government, think-tank activities including virtual reality games. While none of the suggestions is damaging, they are simply unnecessary given what is already taking place on both sides of the Strait.

Taiwanese businesses are, and have been for some time, the major investors on the Mainland, and there are estimates that up to 5% of Taiwan’s population lives at least part time on the Mainland. The Mainland is by far Taiwan’s major trading partner.

Since the opening of direct scheduled flights between Taiwan and the Mainland, there are 3,000 Mainlanders visiting Taiwan each day, and that number is expected to grow to 10,000 in 2010 -- the only constraint may be the rapidly aging Taipei airport.

Add to this the April signing in Nanjing of the new investment agreement allowing Mainland companies to take direct stakes in Taiwanese companies and we have a perfect storm of cooperation and contact. Business travel and tourism have already overwhelmed by orders of magnitude any government sponsored contacts, all without the heavy hand of governments deciding on the interactions.