The Battle for Baghdad
http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22018
By Kenneth M. Pollack
Reviewed by Colonel Norvell B. De Atkine, USA (ret.)

Kenneth Pollack, who wrote The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq and then became a severe critic of Bush administration policies and strategies in Iraq, summarizes his viewpoint on the status of Iraq today by writing that “America is all that stands between stability and anarchy in Iraq.” The al-Maliki government, clearly not the author’s favorite, is depicted as stoking the fires of Iraqi nationalism to the detriment of Iraq’s non-Arab and ethnic minorities while goading its army into “provocations” with the Kurdish militia.

Pollack views the U.S. presence as an impediment to al-Maliki’s ambitions, standing as a bulwark against his impulsive, overconfident, and increasingly autocratic government. The author also believes al-Maliki understands that his pledge of providing better security to the Iraqis relies heavily on the American military presence, but the restriction of that presence “weighs evermore heavily in his thinking.” Believing that all the forces that once propelled Iraq into a “civil war” are still powerful, Pollack opines that progress toward democracy is fragile and at the mercy of the ambitions of corrupt warlords vying for power.

The upcoming January elections are viewed as a critical event, with one crucial issue being whether the elections will be based on a “closed” list (voting for a party) or an “open” list (voting for particular candidates). In addition, Pollack surfaces a rumor that to burnish his nationalist credentials al-Maliki will insist on a national referendum to validate the security agreement with the Americans. If not ratified in the referendum, the Americans would be obligated to withdraw by 2011. This Pollack views as an impending disaster.

Other Iraq analysts view things quite differently: For example, Reidar Visser (http://historiae.org/index.asp) sees al-Maliki’s newly established “State of Law” Party as being the only ideologically coherent political movement in Iraq. It is principally opposed by the Iraqi National Alliance, an amalgamation of secularists, Sadrists et al under Shi’a leadership, which Visser depicts as simply having a “thirst for power.”  Whatever one believes, a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq is a gamble of momentous proportions.