Here Be Dragons: Is China a Military Threat?
http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22022
By Aaron L. Friedberg, Professor of International Affairs, Princeton University and Robert S. Ross, Professor of Political Science, Boston University
Reviewed by Francis P. Sempa, Contributing Editor

In the current issue of The National Interest, two Asia experts debate whether China poses a military threat to the United States. This is a timely and important debate because Asia has eclipsed Europe as the focus of U.S. geopolitical concern in the 21st century.

Friedberg and Ross agree that China is engaged in a significant military build-up and that the United States cannot afford to be complacent in its response to it. They also agree that the two key ingredients of U.S. security in the region are maritime supremacy and cohesive alliances with key allies in the region.

Where Friedberg and Ross differ is in their estimates of the immediacy of the Chinese threat and the adequacy of the U.S. response thus far. Friedberg writes that the U.S. ability to project power into the western Pacific “is now threatened by the maturation of…China’s ‘anti-access/area-denial’ strategy,” and this development “is beginning to raise doubts in the region about America’s ability to defend its allies and project its power.” This threatens to undermine our strategic position in East Asia. Ross, on the other hand, contends that the Chinese military threat is “vastly overrated,” and that our military superiority and key regional alliances will enable us to “retain maritime dominance well into the twenty-first century.” Ross acknowledges some U.S. vulnerabilities, but balances them with what he sees as even greater Chinese weaknesses. 

The debate is a useful reminder that policymakers, as they deal with the immediate threats of Al Qaeda, Iran, and North Korea, must not neglect the broader geopolitical ramifications of the rise of potential hegemons in regions vital to U.S. security.