The coral islets and surrounding waters of the South China Sea are claimed both by China and the assorted Southeast Asian nations on its littoral. The sea is important for maritime passage and the possibility of gas and oil, but especially so for national pride. Kaplan sees naval rivalry over this seascape as the future of conflict.

Communism died in China when Deng Xiaoping said: “To get rich is glorious.” The legitimacy of the government depends on improving the living standards of its people and championing the nationalist interests of China. Kaplan, who represents the realist school of foreign policy at work, describes the regime as a “low calorie version of authoritarianism with a capitalist economy and little governing ideology” — plus “old fashioned nationalism.”

China is not an expansionist power, but Beijing wants to reestablish its old central kingdom role in East Asia and needs to take a hard nationalist line on claiming its traditional borders. It is not now threatened on its land borders, and can put major defense resources into naval and air capabilities. Kaplan consequently anticipates strategic rivalry over the seas in East Asia. He notes domination over the South China Sea would give China the same advantage that the U. S. gained from its control of the Caribbean.

The Southeast Asian countries want an American naval presence as a counterweight to China. Kaplan therefore argues that the U.S. Navy should maintain the fleet in Asian waters at its present strength and that our purpose should be not to limit China’s power — inevitable with its centrality in East Asia — but to balance it. “America’s aim in Asia should be balance, not domination. It is precisely because hard power is still key to international relations that we must make room for a rising China.” That, he believes, will be the “best safeguard for freedom.”