Poodle or Patriot: What will be the Nature of the British-American Transatlantic Relationship under Gordon Brown?

On June 24th, 2007 Tony Blair formally stepped down as Prime Minister after more than ten years at the helm of the British political system. After his decade as Prime Minister, Tony Blair will likely be remembered for one thing, a rapprochement with the United States the likes of which has not been seen in Britain since Margaret Thatcher. And, there is no doubt, Britain’s participation in the “War on Terror” and its commitment of troops to Iraq will stand as the ultimate manifestation of this rapprochement. Unfortunately for the Blair legacy, this memory will likely not be a happy one for the British people. Known as American President George W. Bush’s “poodle”, Blair has spent the better part of the last three years defending his decision to be the US’ main ally in Iraq. Amidst scandals, including the suicide of David Kelley¹, dissatisfaction with Blair and the ‘special relationship’ with the US he cultivated during his time in office became increasingly outspoken until it was clear that the only way his party could maintain power was to pass the torch to a new leader. That new leader is Blair’s right-hand man and Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown. It is now up to Brown to determine what the next year and, depending on the outcome of the election that he is expected to call in the near future, a further 4 years, of transatlantic relationship will look like between Britain and the US.

There has been much speculation in the months since Blair announced he would step down as Prime Minster. Will Brown pull out of Iraq? What type of relationship will he have with George Bush? Will he look across the Channel instead of across the Atlantic? In the weeks since he took power, Brown has given mixed messages with regards to these speculations. Gordon Brown has announced that he will cut 500 of the 5,500 British troops that are currently stationed in Iraq by the end of this year. Brown is currently being pressured to set a timetable for the complete withdrawal of British forces from Iraq but remains cautious about making such plans. Among rumours that this initial troop withdrawal is the first step in a policy that will see Britain moving away from the US, the number of British troops in Afghanistan is being incrementally increased to coincide with the decreasing numbers in Iraq. This decision has been seen as an attempt to show the US administration that the Labour government under Brown will not completely abandon the transatlantic relationship cultivated by Blair. But on the domestic front Gordon has been careful to assure the British people that he will be making independent decisions on behalf of Britain. To this end Brown appointed Lord Malloch Brown as a minister in the Foreign Office; he is an outspoken critic of the American administration who has publicly suggested that Brown will cool relations with Washington and that Brown and Bush will not “be joined at the hip.” But a trip to Washington at the end of July 2007 was presented by the media as an attempt to assure the Bush administration that everything will be “business as usual” under Brown. Meanwhile, the Brown administration has assured the public that this was a long-planned visit and was not intended as a “damage control” event to kowtow to Washington interests. This visit, which went off without a hitch, or indeed barely a mention in the American media, seems to have borne out exactly as British commentators had speculated. The issue of Iraq was confined to Brown's assertion that he would be presenting the matter of British troop withdrawal to the Parliament when its session begins in October tempered by some cliché rhetoric regarding Britain's commitment to the "special relationship" and terrorism being a threat to everyone. For the most part the safer, less controversial subjects of Darfur, global poverty, and Iranian nuclear proliferation were broached by the two leaders in what was described as a "formal" encounter.

These various, and sometimes contradictory moves made by Brown in his first months in office have already led to criticisms of mixed signals over Brown’s intentions for his relationship with the US and questions surrounding his ability to take a real stand on issues that, in the end, sounded the death knells for Blair. On the one hand, many critics of Blair and the Iraq war are pleased to hear that the new Prime Minister may take a more independent stance with regards to the transatlantic partnership. Proponents of a rapprochement with the European Union are pleased to hear that the new administration plans to diversify its foreign relations to include closer ties with the new leaders in Europe. Meanwhile, others fear that if Brown attempts to curry domestic favour with the public and distance himself from Blair by distancing himself from Washington, he may damage the important and ‘special’ relationship between the two nations.

All of these opposing pressures are likely to induce Brown to tread lightly on both sides of the Atlantic, making clear to the US that his administration still recognizes the importance of the US-UK relationship for Britain, both economically and politically. He will not likely abandon or damage a relationship that has allied the UK with the greatest world power, both militarily and economically. But as long as Britain remains the US's key ally in the "war on terror" Brown is in a slightly better position to push British interest in the asymmetrical transatlantic relationship. None the less, as long as debates still rage in the UK about how close their ties with the European Union should be, it is not in Brown’s best interest to burn bridges. At home Brown will likely make clear to his constituents that he is no poodle of Bush’s and that decisions made on the foreign policy front will be made for the good of the country and not with the aim of approval in Washington. Whether or not Brown and his cabinet can balance these positions remains to be seen. With approval ratings reaching over 40% in the last weeks, as opposed to Blair's 28% in his last months in office, Brown will have to continue to strike the right balance in order to assure a Labour win in the next election. To what extent this juggling act may necessitate a distancing from the US may prove his greatest foreign policy challenge.