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September 17-18, 2003
This storm surge information is based on computer simulations using the coastal circulation/water level model ADCIRC. This computer model has been developed by Dr. Rick Luettich @ University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Institute of Marine Sciences, and by Dr. Joannes Westerink @ University of Notre Dame, Dept. of Civil Engineering and Geologic Sciences. Inputs to the model include the coastline geometry, water depths and the hurricane storm track, maximum sustained wind speed and central pressure. A hurricane wind field is synthesized from the storm information and used to drive ADCIRC.
IMPORTANT NOTE: The ADCIRC model has been run for several historical hurricanes and computed surges have compared favorably with measured water levels. However, no systematic attempt has been made to verify the surges computed for Hurricane Isabel. In these runs, one of the largest areas of uncertainty in the surge computations is the program that synthesizes the hurricane wind field using only the storm track and central pressure. Also the storm properties are subject to rapid change that would make these storm surge results invalid. These results are for informational purposes only and should not be used for emergency planning.
Last updated September 17, 2003.
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