News Release

By DAVID WILLIAMSON
UNC News Services

CHAPEL HILL – In 1979, when he was still in high school, Dr. Charles Kurzman protested outside a mosque in Washington, D.C., after radicals took U.S. diplomats hostage in Iran.

Trouble was, like the majority of Americans, who remain so today, Kurzman was then woefully ignorant of what was really happening.

"We waved placards that read, ‘Honk if you hate the Ayatollah,’" said Kurzman, now associate professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "Lots of drivers honked. They probably did not realize – I know we didn’t – that the mosque was Saudi-affiliated, that almost all Saudis and Iranians were of different sects within Islam and that the Islamic governments of Saudi Arabia and Iran were mutually hostile.

"I was quite embarrassed when a teacher later pointed this out to me. As I started to learn about Iranian history, I realized how misguided our reference to ‘the Ayatollah’ had been, given that there are many ayatollahs, and that Ruhollah Khomeini – our target – no longer carried that title in Iran. Continued reference to ‘the Ayatollah’ in the West was a sign of ignorance or hostility."

Since then, through years of study of Persian history, language and culture, Kurzman has transformed himself into an expert on Iran.

Harvard University Press has recently published his latest book, The Unthinkable Revolution, in which he describes what led up to the Iranian Revolution.

"Although I have shed some of my ignorance, I still see the Iranian Revolution as a deviant case," he wrote. "It imposed the first Islamic republic in recent times, and it remains the only instance of a mass Islamic revolt.

"This is a historical book that stops short at February 11, 1979, when the monarchy fell in Iran," the UNC professor said. "However, some of the lessons of that fall are relevant today."

For example, the unpredictability of revolutions is a lesson that never makes much of an impression on leaders who think that they can manipulate history through force, Kurzman said. Since the United States seems to be planning a long-term military presence in Iran's neighbor, Iraq, recalling the unpopularity of United States military personnel in Iran a quarter-century ago is worthwhile.

"Then, as now, United States officials frequently had difficult relations with the locals and were much resented for their extra-territorial legal status, which shielded them from having to obey local law," he said.

When a revolution whips up, massive force is not enough to protect the government, said Kurzman, a member of UNC’s College of Arts and Sciences.

"The shah of Iran had a huge army, a feared security apparatus, billions of dollars’ worth of oil revenues and the support of all the superpowers -- and he was swept away by one of the most popular revolutions in world history," he said. "Revolutions do not announce themselves politely -- they arise suddenly, out of the blue, when people start to think the unthinkable."

The revolution in Iran was remarkable in several ways, he said. One way was that 10 percent or more of the Iranian population participated in the demonstrations and general strike that toppled the shah. By comparison, fewer than 2 percent of the population participated in the French Revolution, and fewer than 1 percent participated in the overthrow of Soviet communism.

Among other elements of the revolution, the book examines how confused everything was -- not just inside the CIA, Department of State and Defense Intelligence Agency – but also among Iranians themselves, none of whom had any good idea of what would happen.

"If my analysis is correct, then mass protest is truly unpredictable, not just in advance but also retroactively," Kurzman said. "The veil of confusion that accompanies such phenomena washes out all attempts to link preconditions with outcomes."

While people want comforting answers about key issues in the Middle East, more questions than answers present themselves.

"Will other regimes in the Middle East, or elsewhere, undergo mass upheaval?" he said. "Does the overwhelming military might of the United States government inoculate it against protest, either in its overseas occupations or in the homeland?"

Such questions would remain unanswerable, even if U.S. leaders had perfect information about the attitudes and intentions of everyone involved, which of course they do not, Kurzman said. One can only guess what the future holds.

"For change as significant as a revolution, we cannot know in advance who will cling to the old ways and who will embrace the new," he said. "All that remains is to pursue the goal for its own sake, because we consider it the right thing to do. All we can do is try to make the unthinkable thinkable. That is what Khomeini did. Whether or not we agree with his goals, we can learn from his pursuit of them."

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Note: Kurzman can be reached at (919) 962-1241 or kurzman@unc.edu.

Media Contact: David Williamson, (919) 962-8596