NEWS

Carolina Poll shows Dole with comfortable lead over Bowles in Senate campaign’s final days

CHAPEL HILL -- Republican Elizabeth Dole maintains a comfortable lead over Democrat Erskine Bowles in the final days of the campaign to replace Sen. Jesse Helms, according to a statewide survey conducted by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Journalism and Mass Communication.

In interviews with a representative sample of 560 registered voters in the week ending Oct. 31, the Carolina Poll found 47 percent supporting Dole, 40 percent for Bowles and 13 still undecided. If undecided voters choose between the two candidates in the same proportions as decided voters, the likely Dole margin is about eight percentage points, said Dr. Robert L. Stevenson, Kenan professor of journalism, who directed the poll.

Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh was not included in the poll because he did not participate in televised debates or campaign actively. Third-party candidates rarely attract more than 1 percent or 2 percent of the vote in North Carolina, Stevenson said.

Bowles is particularly strong among young voters and blacks, while Dole has strong support among men. Education has little influence on candidate preference, which is also evenly spread across different regions of the state.

Respondents were also asked to explain in their own words why they intended to vote for their candidate. Although it is difficult to respond to such a question without a chance to think about the answer, Stevenson said, answers do provide some insights into the ability of the candidates to get their messages across to the public.

Among the voters who could provide a reason for their choice, about a third mentioned something about the candidate’s record or policies, and about one in four chose on the basis of ideology or party identification. Despite a barrage of negative advertising, only about one in four claimed to be voting against a candidate.

The maximum error associated with a random sample of this size is about 5 percent. That means that if every telephone in the state were dialed, results would be equal to the sample results plus or minus 5 percent or less. Other differences resulting from refusals or failure of interviewers to reach specific numbers in the sample cannot be estimated. A comparison of selected demographic characteristics of the sample with a computer list of registered voters suggests that the sample is an accurate reflection of the state’s 4.4 million registered voters.

Students working under faculty supervision carry out telephone interviews for the Carolina Poll. It has been done as a public service by the School of Journalism and Mass Communication for more than 20 years. Details of the survey are available from the school.

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Contact: Dr. Robert L. Stevenson, (919) 962-4082 (work); (919) 967-8427 (home)