News Release

New report: As population grows,
N.C. might face physician shortage

CHAPEL HILL -- Before long, North Carolina could face a doctor shortage because growth in the supply of them has begun lagging behind increases in the state’s population, a new University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill study suggests.

If a physician shortage occurs, nurse practitioners and physician assistants could blunt the resulting impact on health care, however, since their ratio to overall state population figures continues to rise, the UNC Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research study also shows.

The Sheps Center’s Health Professions Data System has issued a report on what has been happening with health-care worker populations statewide titled The North Carolina Health Professions 2004 Data Book. The effort is part of Sheps’ annual review of the N.C. health workforce.

"We are seeing our uptake of physicians staying flat for the past four years while our population continues to grow," said Thomas Ricketts, director of the Southeast Regional Center for Health Workforce Studies at UNC and co-author of the report.

While the number of physicians in North Carolina rose from 17,090 in 2003 to 17,349 in 2004, the rate of growth in the total number of practicing physicians has steadily declined since 2000, Ricketts said. Between 1999 and 2000, the physician workforce grew 2.9 percent, but from 2003-2004, it grew only 1.5 percent.

"Relative to population, this translates to a growth of 1.5 percent from 1999 to 2000 and 0.6 percent from 2003 to 2004, indicating that physician growth is not keeping pace with population growth," he said. "The decline is among both general practitioners and specialists."

The Association of American Medical Colleges and other national organizations also have noted an impending shortage of physicians, and recent experience supports that growing possibility, Ricketts said.

"In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which displaced many physicians from their homes and practices, physician recruitment from affected areas has been intense, with many communities across the nation, both urban and rural, seeking to attract Gulf Coast physicians into practice."

Nurse practitioner and physician assistant numbers are steadily rising, he said.

Respectively, their ratio per 10,000 state residents jumped by 231 percent and 140 percent between 1990 and 2004. At the same time, the number of doctors per 10,000 population rose by only 26 percent. Nurse practitioners and physician assistants provide some of the same services as physicians and can fill some potential gaps in distribution.

Other licensed health-care professions in the State showed the following percentage gains -- physical therapists, 7.4; podiatrists, 6.4; dental hygienists, 5.6; dentists, 4.8; chiropractors, 3.9; physical therapy assistants, 2.6; registered nurses, 1.7; optometrists, 1.6 and pharmacists, 1.1. Declines were seen in the statewide supply of psychological associates, psychologists, certified nurse midwives and licensed practical nurses.

The new date book contains county-level data for 17 licensed health professions. New to the system for the 2004 edition were respiratory therapists. For 27 years, the Sheps Center has produced the report annually licensed health care professionals. The N.C. Area Health Education Centers Program and the UNC Office of the Provost support the research. Individual health professions licensing boards supply the data used.

Information is available at the Health Professions Data System website (www.shepscenter.unc.edu/hp).  To order the new 2004 edition, contact nchp@unc.edu or (919) 966-7112.

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Note: Ricketts can be reached at (919) 966-5541 or tom_ricketts@unc.edu.
Health Professions Data System contact: Katie Gaul at 966-7122 or ncph@unc.edu
Sheps Center contact: Christine Shia, (919) 843-7661 or shia@mail.schsr.unc.edu
News Services contact: David Williamson, (919) 962-8596