11-2 Election Day
My morning estimate of Kerry 50.3 is based largely on a single (Marist)
poll begun and completed yesterday, so it does not have the virtue of
averaging which is the essence of this approach. The previous day
estimate Bush 50.7 should be more accurate, and it is awkward that the
two estimates differ by a full point and predict different winners.
What we seem to know for sure is
that it will be close.
The final electoral college estimate, Bush 278 to Kerry 260 reflects
that final day poll and the decision rule that doing less well
nationally than Gore 2000 (50.3 compared to 50.4!!!) assigns all the
red states, including Florida to Bush. This is obviously a knife edge
decision. This is exactly the 2000 result except that the red states
have gained 7 electoral votes from the blue states.
11-1 Election eve
It's 50-50, but the final two days are driven by only two pols (both
with kerry leading). On the last day for which there are multiple
sources it is
Bush 50.4 and Kerry 49.6.
Today's trends are a wash, with Fox, Marist, CBSNYT trending toward
Kerry, and ABC/WP, Zogby, and Rasmussen moving toward Bush. All
movements are small.
My electoral college projection stills signals Bush because any Kerry
performance less that Gore in 2000 necessarily produces that result. At
this point the abundence of state polls is better evidence than a
national projection. From the national number Bush would win FL,
OH, NH, WI, NM, IA, and OR.
10-31 10:30AM
Electoral College:
My electoral college estimate is consistently different than others and
consistently points to a big Bush edge. That is for two reasons:
(1) It is a national estimate, entirely driven by (a) the current
national estimate (actually the filtered one) and (b) all 538 votes are
allocated to the two candidates with no "toss-up" category. On (1) any
national number smaller that Gore's 2000 standing (50.4) predicts
a Democratic loss, and Kerry has always been below that number since
the Republican convention. I make no allowance that the race might be
different in the battleground states, as it appears now to be, than
nationally. On (2) an estimate of 50.01 for either candidate puts
that state in his column, where realism would predict about a 50-50
shot instead. There are about 120 electoral votes that switch from side
to side for a movement of about 1 percent in the national estimate.
Currently my estimate assigns virtually all of the battlground to Bush
(OH, FL, WI, OR, IA), where state polls suggest toss-ups in OH and FL
and Kerry leads in WI and OR.
For the final day estimate, I will use the daily estimate and not the
filtered one, because the latter lags behind trends.
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As a reality check and because I worry that my estimate heavily
overweights the Rasmussen numbers relative to others I present here
simple averages for the last week based, as always for me, on the first
day the study was in the field.
Day Date
Bush Kerry Bush
lead
Sat 10-23
47.4
45.9 1.5
Sun 10-24
47.3
46.4 0.9
Mon 10-25
47.9 46.0
1.9
Tue 10-26
46.8 46.4
0.4
Wed 10-27
48.5
45.4 3.1
Thu 10-28
47.3
47.0 0.3
Fri 10-29
45.8 47.0 -1.2 (based
on Democracy Corps(D) and Fox polls only)
These leads are smaller than those I have estimated, except for one
case where I had Kerry ahead, and the cause is overweighting Rasmussen.
They are also substantially smaller than reported averages on the web,
the reason being that virtually all such reports are based on likely
voter samples. These estimates include registered as well as likely
samples. For a year in which turnout is a wild card, I have little
confidence in likely voter screens, however well intentioned.
For my final day estimate I will report two numbers, both with and
without including Rasmussen.
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10:30 5:50PM
Tracking Polls
Zogby: Kerry gains 1.1 and takes small lead (0.3)
TIPP: Bush gains 1.5 and moves from tie to lead
Rasmussen: Kerry gains 1.2 and trails by 0.8
Fox: Kerry moves from -5 to -2 among likely voters, remains tied among
registered voters.
WP/ABC: Kerry moves from -3 to -1 among likely voters (RV unavailable)
The Osama bin Laden tape:
Kerry gains in 4 of 5 tracking polls in the field after the
announcement (Zogby, Rasmussen, Fox, and WP/ABC). It probably indicates
no effect of the news, but is consistent also with a move toward Kerry..
Other national polls
Newsweek: Bush leads by 6 (LV) or 3 (RV)
10-29 Friday
Latest day results are driven entirely by an early release Fox poll
showing anywhere between tie and Bush +5, depending upon sample typle
and question.
Democracy Corps (D): Bush 46 Kerry 49
Zogby: Bush 46.2 Kerry 45.4 (47-47 with leaners)
Rasmussen: Bush 48.7 Kerry 46.7
TIPP tie
WP/ABC Bush +3 (LV) or +2 (RV)
10-27
Zogby moves from Bush +2.6 to Bush +0.5.
Rasmussen moves from tie to Bush +1.7, effectively back to where it was
before the weekend (false?) trend toward Kerry.
TIPP moves from Bush +6 to Bush +4
WP/ABC moves from Kerry +2 to Kerry +1
10-26 (PM)
Rasmussen moved back sharply from Kerry +2 to tie. A two point
movement is normal for smaller samples, but atypical of the N=3,000
Rasmussed 3 day samplings. The weekend movement looks more like
sampling fluctuation than trend. Since the apparent trend appeared in
WP/ABC data also, that yet-to-be-released number (5:00PM EDT) will help
resolve the issue.
(AM) The day begins with Zogby reporting no change (Bush +2.6).
The question
of trend toward Kerry over the weekend is unresolved.
10-25 (PM)
WP/ABC released 10/25, covering 10/21-10/24 picks up a trend toward
Kerry. It shows Kerry +1 (LV) or +2 (RV) after reporting Bush
leads of 6 and 7 during the last few days.
TIPP is moving toward Bush at the same time. Because the TIPP and Zogby
tracking polls are not positively correlated with the latent series
estimate, they contribute nothing to it. Both are very short in a
period of generally no movement and so the lack of correlation is not
particularly meaningful.
Gallup is reporting Bush 51 to Kerry 46 (Likely) and 49 to 47
(registered). This both appears to establish a significant Bush lead
among likely voters and shows a movement toward Kerry over the larger
lead reported a week
ago. The earlier survey had a Bush lead of 8 among likely voters and 3
among registered.
The afternoon estimate puts Kerry ahead for the first time since
August. This is driven by a strong two day movement in the
Rasmussen tracking poll. Some other polls fielded at the same time
suggest a trend toward Kerry (e.g., Washington Post/ABC, Gallup), but
others
(Zogby) do not. So the Rasmussen gain might be sampling fluctuation.
What is more solid, however, is that Kerry has closed the gap to the
point where one day fluctuations can put him in the lead.
10-24
(late) Today all current releases moved toward Kerry. That is
Zogby, Rasmussen, and Washington Post tracking polls. The TIPP
poll, however, moved toward Bush, but is a day older than the others.
(PM) Like the downward move two days ago, the upward movement in this
afternoon's estimate is largely driven by one result, a Rasmussen poll
showing a tightening of the Bush lead to 0.4. Things are edging
closer and the wild volatility of earlier polls seems to have
eased. Most recent releases show a small Bush lead or a
(nonsignificant) Kerry advanatge.
10-22
The big move downward this afternoon is entirely a function of a
relatively small move in the Rasmussen numbers, to which this estimate
is overly sensitive.
10-21
The Harris organization newest results provide some perspective on
likely voters screens (and some rare candor about procedures.)
Harris employed two different likely voter screens. In the first,
they simply declared that voters who asserted that they were registered
and "absolutely certain" to vote were likely voters. These
respondents produce a two point (48-46) Bush lead. Then
Harris also tried its traditional screen, which drops from this group
anybody who was eligible in 2000 and did not vote. That produces
an 8 point Bush lead! The truth probably lies in between.
Since turnout is likely to be higher in 2004 than in 2000, the
traditional screen probably underestimates liklies. But too respondents
do fib a bit about vote likelihood.
10-20
My estimate slides back and forth, within the day, between a tie
(morning) and a clear Bush lead (afternoon), based on reporting
schedules. The latter uses more data and is therefore better.
Today's numbers:
Fox Bush +5 (without Nader)
Fox Bush +7 (with)
Democracy Corps (a Democratic firm) Kerry +3
Zogby Bush + 0.5
Rasmussen Bush +1.4
On Real Movement in the Campaign:
I am of the view that movement is hugely exaggerated in media
treatments. Looking at all the polls and requiring real movement
to show up in most,
(1) My off-the-top estimate is that Swift Boat campaign and
Democratic convention netted out to zero. Since they were going
on at the same time, we can't tease out intervention effects. My
guess, from analysis of previous convention bounces, is that Swift Boat
cost Kerry 4-5 points and the convention gained about the same amount.
(2) Bush gained 4-5 points from the GOP convention.
(3) Kerry gained back 2-3 points from the three debates, most movement
coming after the first, leaving
(4) Bush ahead 2-3 points going into the final two weeks.
Most other claims for trends, coming almost daily, are simply
capitalizing on chance variation in the very small samples that
characterizes current horse-race polling. As I have written, "we
can't help ourselves."
10-18
Back to normal update schedule.
Both Zogby and Rasmussen agree for once today, both calling a
tie. ABC/WP will be the tie breaker.
Gallup, as usual, is all over the place, now reporting an 8 point Bush
lead. I've come to the conclusion that its clients, USA Today and
CNN, prefer fantasy data to hype the news over good estimates. Stay
tuned. It will probably wobble back and forth some 20 points
before election day, at which point Gallup will bet its reputation on a
realistic final estimate. That one I will believe.
Jim Stimson