Joe Messina (Under Construction)

The primary objectives of my research are (1) to analyze the spatial variation of LULC and LULCC through scale, pattern, and process interrelationships of the hypothesized drivers of deforestation, anthropogenic extensification and reforestation and (2) to develop a modeling approach though a temporally dynamic, agent and rule-based probabilistic framework (Cellular Automata). LULCC simulations will be guided through the satellite time-series, GIS database coverages and derivative surfaces, and the 1990 and 1999 social surveys of demographic and LULC information collected at arm and community levels. The main objectives are addressed through five sub-objectives:

1. Spatial analysis of LULC systems and deforestation - reforestation - agricultural extensification rates at multiple spatial (finca, sector, region) and temporal (inter/intra annually) scales including levels of secondary plant succession;
2. Develop a regionally-specific hybrid landuse/landcover classification scheme that is hierarchical and crisp;
3. Generate a biophysical gradient model containing biophysical surface probabilities relating site productivity and site suitability to LULC and LULCC;
4. Develop a social gradient model using the 1990 and 1999 social surveys and focusing on central place effects, geographic accessibility and transportation networks including nested drivers of activity related to LULC and LULCC;
5. Develop and apply a cellular automaton model to characterize and simulate spatially-explicit LULCC in times current, antecedent, and subsequent to 2025 though the use of a Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) image time-series, demographic surveys, and an integrated GIS of site and situation surfaces linked and assessed through defined scales and procedures developed through CA simulations.