Mac Mirabile’s NCAA College football statistical rankings Bowl Week (12/5-1/4)

 

 

Rank

Change

School

Power

1

0

Southern Cal

23.70146

2

0

Auburn

32.83413

3

0

Oklahoma

37.93232

4

0

California

42.44934

5

0

Utah

44.64757

6

0

Boise St.

48.76243

7

1

Louisville

53.02282

8

-1

Miami

55.4693

9

0

Virginia Tech

58.05368

10

0

Georgia

63.86226

11

0

Virginia

64.74667

12

0

LSU

66.21589

13

2

UTEP

67.00229

14

-1

Alabama

69.0027

15

-1

Texas

69.38346

16

2

Arizona St.

71.235

17

-1

Iowa

73.41809

18

-1

Michigan

73.43768

19

2

Texas Tech

73.95694

20

-1

Florida State

74.01454

21

-1

Oklahoma State

74.32629

22

0

Purdue

75.6232

23

1

Texas A&M

77.122

24

1

West Virginia

77.51974

25

-2

Florida

78.27028

26

0

Oregon St.

79.13478

27

4

Boston College

79.47092

28

0

Bowling Green

82.6138

29

-2

Fresno State

82.62886

30

0

Ohio State

87.29746

31

1

Notre Dame

91.6203

32

12

UCLA

95.0381

33

1

Miami Ohio

97.95755

34

1

Minnesota

98.1948

35

2

Tennessee

101.1031

36

4

North Carolina

102.9325

37

2

Troy

104.012

38

3

Georgia Tech

104.7759

39

3

Wisconsin

108.2858

40

7

Wyoming

108.7071

41

10

Iowa St.

111.9902

42

6

Connecticut

112.0027

43

3

Cincinnati

112.5111

44

10

N. Illinois

114.5961

45

15

Pittsburgh

119.1173

46

32

North Texas

125.3762

47

31

Toledo

126.8019

48

19

Syracuse

127.3598

49

15

Marshall

127.966

50

11

UAB

128.3192

 

 

This week in the polls

Auburn is left out of the championship game, but the Orange Bowl promises to be a close one.  My model picks USC by 7.  My model picks Auburn by 10, Utah by 21, and Texas by 7.

 

About the rankings

 

The ranking is computed by averaging each team’s rank among the 117 Division 1A teams in the following statistical categories: Rushing Offense, Passing Offense, Total Offense, Scoring Offense, Rushing Defense, Pass Efficiency Defense, Total Defense, Scoring Defense, Net Punting, Punt Returns, Kickoff Returns, Turnover Margin, Pass Defense, and Passing Efficiency.   Each team is ranked between 1 (best) and 117 (worst) in each category.  The rankings are then averaged to compute the raw score.  I again compute a second average in which the team’s best and worst categories are eliminated.  The second average counts for 4/5 of the ranking, the first average counts for 1/5.  Because the raw scores fail to account for the quality of opponent, I have factored in each team’s opponents winning percentage, labeled “schedule” on the left hand table.  Additionally this week, I have added a change to show which teams made the biggest jumps from last week.  Positive changes greater than 5 spots are blue.  Negative changes more than 5 spots are red.

 

Conference Power Rankings

 

Big Twelve

96.40

Pac 10

97.09

ACC

98.05

SEC

100.67

Big Ten

104.49

 

These rankings are computed by averaging the power scores of all teams within each real conference.  By real conference, I mean conferences where girls are neither teammates nor opponents.  This excludes the C-USA, Big East, Mountain West, WAC, MAC (because of the strength of play of the directional Michigan universities), Sunbelt, etc. 

 

Click here to see my computer predictions for this week’s games, organized by point spread and over/under.  This is the seventh week my computer model will be tested.  Last week, it picked with the spread 6-4 (60%). For the year, my model is 164-108 (60.3%) 

 

My model went 7-3 (70.0%) picking winners this week.  My model is 204-79 (72.1%) for the year.

 

My personal rankings picking games using the spread this year is: 127-102 (55.5%)  Last week: 8-4 (66.7%).  I am in the top 1% of all Yahoo handicappers.  Interesting note, in the last seven weeks, more than 58.9% of the time the home team covered the spread.