PLCY 183
Policy Analysis for Global Climate Change
Spring 2005
"Oh, I give up! Now he's not
even
listening."
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Instructor: Mort Webster |
Office: Abernethy Hall 217 |
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Course Time: M-W 2:00-3:15 pm |
Email: mort@unc.edu |
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Class Location: |
Phone: 843-5010 |
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Office Hours: Mon & Tues 1:00 - 1:45pm, 3:30-5:00, and by appointment |
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Announcements:
About this Course:
Why might you want to take this course? If you are interested in international environmental policy issues, how science can be used to inform policy, or what exactly a "computer model" is anyway, this may be the course for you. This will be a course in quantitative policy analysis. Scared? Don't be! There is a whole set of simple tools that, once we decide an issue like global climate change might be serious, we can use to answer questions such as:
How bad is global warming
likely
to be?
What do we have to do to
reduce the
risks?
How much will it cost to
reduce
those risks?
Are there better or worse
ways to
accomplish the same goals - which policies are better?
You don't need to know how to do any of this already. You DO, however, need to be unafraid of math and using computers and willing to learn. This course will introduce you to these techniques, and give you practice applying them. It is designed to be a hands-on, team-based, semester-long case study on climate change policy. Each of you will build your own simple model of climate policy assessment. You will form teams each representing different countries, and conduct a policy analysis for your government. Still interested? Read through the course syllabus for more information. If you still have questions, please email or call me or stop by.
Course Syllabus: (HTML) (MSWord)
Assignments:
No.
Topic
Due Date SOLUTIONS
1
Flowchart of DICE
Model
1/26
(Excel)
2
Production
Functions
2/2 (Word) (Excel)
3
Emissions Projection
Model
2/9 (Word) (Excel)
Use THIS template to
build
your model for HW #3
4
Environmental
Economics
2/16 (Word) (Excel)
5
Add Climate to Model and
Optimize
2/23
(Word) (Excel)
6
Add Discounted Utility, more Optimization 3/2
(Word) (Excel)
Project 1 TEAMS: POLICY POSITION
PAPER 3/23
7
Alternative Policy
Scenarios
3/30
(Word) (Excel)
8
EPPA Model
Exercises
4/6
(Word)
9
Toy IGSM
Exercises
4/18
(Word)
Project 2:TEAMS: FINAL PROJECT PAPER AND
PRESENTATION 4/27
Discussion
Questions:
No.
Topic
Due Date SOLUTIONS
1
Framework Convention and Kyoto Protocol 1/19
(Word)
2
Representing Technology
Change
1/31 (Word)
3
Economics and Market
Failure
2/7
(Word)
4
Optional: Environmental
Economics
2/9 (Word)
4a
Optional: Measuring Policy
Costs
2/14 (Word)
5
Climate
Modelling
2/28 (Word)
6
International Environmental
Treaties
(Word)
7
Nordhaus' DICE
Results
(Word)
8
Concentration Stabilization
(WRE)
(Word)
9
Influence of Science on
Policy
(Word)
Course Project:
Team Assignments
Project Part 1
Project Part 2
Files for
Running Toy IGSM (HW9):
Download Toy IGSM
Toy IGSM
Documentation (PDF)
Files for
Running EPPA (HW8):
[Make sure to use the RIGHT mouse
button, and choose
"Save Link As"]
GAMSsetup.exe
inclib.pck
GAMS
license file
EPPA files
(ZIPPED)
On-line
Required Text:
I have not ordered this text from the
UNC
Bookstore. I WILL to make the most important chapters
available here in PDF, so that you do
not have
to buy. However, those of you who are more serious about
continuing study of climate change
will probably
want to own a copy of this. It is available at a discount
through Amazon via the link below.
Managing the
Global
Commons: The Economics of Climate Change
by William D.
Nordhaus, MIT
Press (1994).
(Order
from Amazon)
Wed. Jan 19: Overview of the
Policy
Process for Climate Change
Jacoby and Reiner:
Getting
Climate Policy on Track after The Hague
United Nations Framework
Convention on
Climate Change
Kyoto Protocol
Optional Addition
Readings:
Reconstructing
Climate Policy: The Paths Ahead
Richard B.
Stewart, Jonathan B. Wiener. Policy Matters 01-23. Sep 2001
Towards a
Better
Climate Treaty, Scott Barrett. Policy Matters 01-29. Nov 2001.
Series of
Newspaper
Articles on European Emissions Trading, March 2004
Mon. Jan 24: Introduction to
Climate
Assessment Model
Nordhaus, Managing the
Commons, Chs. 1 & 2
Wed. Jan 26: Modeling Production
Required Reading:
"Production" (Pindyck, Robert S.) Ch. 6 from Microeconomics
Optional Addition
"Production Functions" Ch.
11 from Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles
and Extensions, 6th
Edition, Walter Nicholson
Mon. Jan. 31: Representing
Technological
Change
Edmonds et al (2000)
"Technology
and the Economics of Climate Change Policy"
Wed. Feb. 2: Technological Change
II
Darmstadter,
"The Energy-CO2 Connection: A Review of Trends and
Challenges"
Mon. Feb. 7: Environmental
Economics I
Callan & Thomas
Ch.3
(E-Reserve)
Optional: If you
haven't had
Economics or want a review,
also read through Callan & Thomas Ch.2 (E-Reserve)
Wed. Feb. 9: Environmental
Economics II
Callan & Thomas
Ch.5
(E-Reserve)
Optional: Pizer, "Choosing
Price
or Quantity Controls for Greenhouse Gases"
Fischer et
al.,
Using Emissions Trading to Regulate National GHG Emissions"
Ellerman (2000). “Tradable Permits for
Greenhouse
Gas Emissions:
A primer with particular reference to
Europe.”
Mon. Feb. 14: Measuring Costs of
Policies
Weyant, "Introduction to
Economics
of Climate Change"
only pp 1-20 (stop before "D. Technology").
SKIM: Nordhaus, Ch.4,
pp.59-74,
"Costs of Reducing GHG Emissions"
Q: Which costs from Weyant does Nordhaus try to capture?
Q: How does Nordhaus estimate the cost of CO2 reductions?
Wed. Feb. 16: Optimization
Mon. Feb. 28: Modeling the Climate
System
Houghton Ch.
5:
"Modelling the Climate"
BRIEFLY SKIM:
Optional: McGuffie
and
Henderson-Sellers, Chapter 1: "Climate" (E-Reserve)
Wed. Mar. 2: Uncertainties in
Climate
Stone “Forecast
Cloudy”
Mon. March 21: Politics and
Institutions
Skolnikoff (1997).
“Same
Science, Differing Policies; the Saga of Global Climate Change”
Optional: Skolnikoff
(1999). “From
Science to Policy: The Science-Related Politics of Climate
Change Policy
in the
United States.”
Wed. March 23: Climate Impacts and
Damages
Houghton
Nordhaus Ch. 4 pp.
49-59
"Estimates of the Impact of Climate Damage"
Optional: IPCC WGII Summary
Mon. March 28: Policy Analysis
under
Certainty I
Nordhaus
Ch. 5
"Analysis of Policies to Slow Global Warming"
Wed. March 30: Policy Analysis
under
Certainty II
Wigley, Richels,
&
(E-Reserve)
Babiker and
Jacoby
(1999). “Developing Country Effects of Kyoto-Type Emissions
Restrictions.”
Wed. April 13: Decision Analysis
and Decision Trees
Clemen Ch. 4:
"Making Choices"
Read ONLY pp. 101-108
Week 10: Assessment of Climate
Policies
Weyant
(2000). “An Introduction to the Economics of Climate Change Policy.”
Week 11: Dealing with Uncertainty:
Reilly et al (2001).
Webster et al (2002).
Week 12: Dealing with Uncertainty:
Decision Trees
Webster (2002).
Week 13: Integrated Assessment and
International Negotiations
JP Paper on IGSM –
Nature
Paper
Claussen and McNeilly (1998). “Equity
and Global
Climate Change:
The Complex Elements of Global Fairness.”
Week 14: The Role of Scientific
and
Technical Assessment for Policy
IPCC
WG I (Science) Summary for Policy Makers
IPCC
Synthesis Report (WG I, II, III) Summary for Policy Makers
Critiques of IPCC
Lecture
Notes/Slides:
Introduction
&
Policy Background
Production
Functions
Technological Change
Greenhouse Gases
and
Radiative Forcing
Climate Modeling
Useful Links
UN
Framework Convention Site
Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Website
MIT Joint Program on the
Science
and Policy of Global Change
U.S. DOE Energy Information
Administration
International
Energy Agency (OECD)
Resources
for the Future