PLCY 298 (Section 3)
Risk and Decision Making Under Uncertainty for Policy
Spring 2006
| Instructor: Mort Webster |
Office: Abernathy Hall 217 |
| Course Time: Wednesday 2:00-4:50 pm |
Email: mort@unc.edu |
Class Location: Hamilton 523
|
Phone: 843-5010 |
ANNOUNCEMENTS:
I'll be putting this site together gradually over the
semester.
Please check back frequently, or email me if something is missing that
I promised would be here.
I. Syllabus
II. Readings
Arrow
and Fisher (1974). "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and
Irreversibility"
Morgan and Henrion (1990). Uncertainty, Ch. 4 "The Nature and
Sources of Uncertainty" [Handed out in class].
Minh Ha-Duong
(1998) "Quasi-option
value and
climate policy choices" Energy Economics 20 599-620
Morgan and Henrion (1990)
Ch.
8 "The Propagation and Analysis of Uncertainty"
Hammersley and Handscomb (1964). Ch. 1 & 3
[Handed out in class].
Applied Probability & Stochastic Processes
Feldman and Valdez-Flores (1996)
Ch. 1: Basic
Probability
Ch. 2: Markov Chains
Ch. 3: Simulation
Ch. 4: Markov
Processes
Ch. 9: Markov
Decision Processes
Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Dani 1997
Introduction
Ch. 1:
Stochastic Simulation
Ch. 2:
Bayesian Inference
Ch.
3: Approximate Methods of Inference
Ch. 4:
Markov Chains
Ch. 5: Gibbs Sampling
Introduction to Stochastic Processes
Hoel, Port, Stone (1972)
Ch.
3: Markov Pure Jump Processes
Ch.
4: Second Order Processes