RIVER RETREAT 2010:
CONTINGENCY
Somewhere on the
beach, Emerald Isle, NC
River Retreat Ground
Rules:
The goal of the River Retreat is to think. If you attend, you are expected to read all the papers thoroughly. If you are in charge of a session (name listed with a session), you are expected to lead or co-lead the discussion, and provide provocative ideas to dig deeply into the papers, and the underlying theory and concepts of those papers. There are such things as stupid questions, and participants are encouraged to point out stupid questions and stupid comments with appropriate levels of sarcasm, scrutiny, and humor. Remember, always, that the goal is ideas and concepts.
2010: CONTINGENCY
Last year we talked about prediction; how different disciplines predict, and how and when we use prediction in decision making. But how reasonable is prediction as a goal? What are reasons for which we might not be able to predict the outcome of a system?
This year we are talking about contingency, or path dependency; how the sequence or timing of events can matter as much as the actual events themselves, how the context for events, physical, biological, or social, can shape the outcome in ways that are specific, indeterminate. Given that many environmental processes, physical, biological and social, are contingent on contexts and circumstances, what do we do?
Saturday January 16
Depart Chapel Hill
9:00
Early-afternoon Arrive;
3:00-4:30 Some background reading to get things started:
What is contingency?
Pielke, 2007. A promise unfulfilled. Pgs 182-204 in Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can’t Predict the Future. [Pdf]
Odum, E.P., 1969. The strategy of ecosystem development. Science 164: 262-270. [Pdf]
Optional (one in case you haven’t read it yet, one just b/c I’m on a Cronon kick these days; skip Cronon if you want)
Schumm and Lichty, 1965. Time, space, and causality in geomorphology. American Journal of Science 263: 110-119. [Pdf]
Cronon, W., 1993. The uses of environmental history. Environmental History Review 17(3): 1-22. [Pdf]
4:30 – 6:00 Break
6:00 Dinner prep and
dinner
8:00 – 9:30 Dessert
and Contingency in hydrology and geomorphology (Daisy/JR)
Phillips, J.D., 2006. Evolutionary geomorphology: Thresholds and nonlinearity in landform response to environmental change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 10, 731-742 [Pdf to article; Pdf to review comments and Pdf of editor comments]
Green and Wang, 2008. Watershed flow paths and stream water nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios under simulated precipitation regimes. Water Resources Research 44, W12414, doi: 10.1029/2007WR006139. [Pdf]
Koutsoyiannis and Montanari, 2007. Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: uncertainty and insights. Water Resources Research 43, W05429, doi: 10.1029/2006WR005592. [Pdf]
Sunday January 17
8:30 – 10:00 Contingency in Ecology? (Jeff/Scott)
Readings:
Denny et al. (2009). On the prediction of extreme ecological events. Ecological Monographs 79(3): 397-421. [Pdf]
Berlow, E.L., 1997. From canalization to contingency: historical effects in a successional rocky intertidal community. Ecological Monographs 67(4): 435-460. [Pdf]
Post and Palkovacs, 2009. Eco-evolutionary feedbacks in community and ecosystem ecology: interactions between the ecological theatre and the evolutionary play. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 364: 1629-1640. [Pdf]
10:00 – 10:30 Break
10:30 – 12:00 Contingency in policy and management? [Lauren/Autumn]
Ostrom, E., Analyzing institutional change. Chapter 4 in Governing the commons. [Pdf] [Note: Ostrom won this year’s Nobel prize in Economics]
Gerlak, A., 2005. Federalism and US Water Policy: lessons for the 21st century. Publius: The Journal of Federalism 36: 231-257. [Pdf]
MacDonnell, L.J., 2009. Return to the river: environmental flow policy in the United States and Canada. JAWRA 45: 1087- [Pdf]
Saleth and Dinar, 2005. Water institutional reforms: theory and practice. Water Policy 7: 1-19. [Pdf]
Feldman, D., 2009. Preventing the repetition: Or, what Los Angeles’ experience in water management can teach Atlanta about urban water disputes. Water Resources Research 45, W04422, doi:10.1029/2008wr007605. [Pdf] [note: this is one that we read last year in reading group, so many of you will have already read it]
12:00 – 1:00 Lunch
Break (and pack for hike or whatever)
1:00 – 2:30: Break
out sessions
I’m still working on what we are going to do with this session
2:30-5:30 Break (Socratic
Walk on the beach)
5:30 – 7:30: Dinner
and Pop-ups
(very very brief casual research or
life description; poetry is encouraged when appropriate; interpretive dance is
never appropriate)
8:00 – 9:30:
Presentation and discussion of writing/statements on research and contingency.
You will need to present half page research description and succinctly summarize your research. The group will then pound you with questions and criticism. Goal will be to think about how you can/could incorporate ideas about contingency, or methodological ideas from the earlier sessions into your own research ideas and plans.
Monday January 18
8:30 – 10:00: Session 5: What now? Trying to think broadly about research and education
What do we do with this info?
Readings:
Rhoads, B.L., and C.E. Thorne, 1993. Geomorphology as science: the role of theory. Geomorphology 6: 287-307. [Pdf]
Cronon, W., 1998. Only connect…: The goals of a liberal education. The American Scholar 67(4). [Pdf]
10:00 – 11:00 Pack up
11:00 Closing and look to the future
Group photo…
Topics for next year
12:00: GO HOME