RIVER RETREAT 2009:
PREDICTION
Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, NC
River Retreat Ground
Rules:
The goal of the River Retreat is to think. If you attend, you are expected to read all the papers thoroughly. If you are in charge of a session (name listed with a session), you are expected to lead or co-lead the discussion, and provide provocative ideas to dig deeply into the papers, and the underlying theory and concepts of those papers. There are such things as stupid questions, and participants are encouraged to point out stupid questions and stupid comments with appropriate levels of sarcasm, scrutiny, and humor. Remember, always, that the goal is ideas and concepts.
2009: PREDICTION
(from Scott) Prediction of future events and conditions in the environment is a central part of modern science. We predict environmental phenomenon as a way to test our models and to guide environmental management decisions. In testing models, a good (or bad) prediction informs the scientist of the accuracy (or deficiency) of a model. However, when offering predictions to inform policy and management, a bad prediction can be economically, politically, and scientifically costly. Offering effective predictions to environmental managers requires understanding what makes a prediction good (or bad), which is much more than the prediction ultimately being true (or false). The purpose of this retreat is to discuss the role of prediction in river system science as it relates to environmental decision making. We will review case studies in river geomorphology and ecology illustrating successful and less-successful predictions, discuss how and why these efforts succeeded or not, and what the implications where to environmental management. Further, we will explore how the fields of river geomorphology and ecology differ in their approaches to prediction.
Friday January 16
6:00 Arrive Coweeta; Dinner and beer (obligate bonding experiences)
Saturday January 17
8:30 10:00 Session 1: How and why do we predict in river system science? (Martin/Lauren)
Postdiction, scenarios, projection, forecasting, and prediction, a trajectory of science and application.
Readings:
Clark et al 2001 Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative. Science 293:657-660.
10:00 10:30 Break
10:30 12:00 Session 2: Prediction in river geomorphology/hydrology (Daisy/Joel/Chuck)
Break out session.
12:00 1:00 Lunch
Break (and pack for hike or whatever)
1:00 2:30 Session
3: Prediction in river ecology (Scott/Jeff)
Carpenter SR 2002 Ecological futures: Building an ecology of the long now. Ecology 83(8):2069-2083.
2:30-5:30 Break
(Hike/Socratic Walk in the Woods)
5:30 7:30: Dinner
and Pop-ups by students and post-docs
(very
very brief research description; poetry is encouraged when appropriate)
8:00 9:30: Session
4: Cross-cutting Prediction : How to approach a complex
problem from multiple disciplines. (Daisy/JR/Jeff)
Are we ready for it yet? What are the stumbling blocks
Power, M.E., et al., 1995. Hydraulic food-chain models. BioScience 45(3): 159-167.
Sunday January 18
8:30 10:00: Session 5: What do you do if you need a number? (Lauren/FrankMatt/Chuck)
What do we do when someone asks for a number, and what do we do when they just arent all that hot?
Readings:
10:00 10:30 Break
10:30-11:30 Session 6: Alternatives to deterministic modeling/prediction (JR/Allison/Autumn)
Kirchner et al., 2000. Fractal stream chemistry and its
implications for contaminant transport in catchments. Nature 403: 524527.
Camporeale and Ridolfi, 2006. Riparian
vegetation distribution induced by river flow variability: A stochastic approach.
Water Resources Research 42, W10415, doi:
10.1029/2006WR004933.
Gisiger, 2001.
Scale invariance in biology: coincidence or footprint of a universal mechanism?
Biological Reviews 76: 161-209. (just read
through beginning through section IV)
1130: Closing and look to the future
Group photo
12:00: Non-UNCers GO HOME
UNC Research
discussions and considerations
Monday January 19
(MLK Day)
Noon: go back to UNC