The New Secessionists

Secession petition signers by day

It appears the movement for secession has reached its limit. The number of people signing pro-secession petitions has dropped by more than 95% from its peak on Tuesday, 11/13.

Secession petition signatures by day

This drop is not an artifact of how we uniquely identify signers (based on name and place). The total number of signatures has also declined dramatically over the last week, from almost 300 thousand on Tuesday, 11/13, to less than four thousand a day over that weekend.

One interesting tactic that early supporters used to create a sense of momentum was to have individuals sign multiple petitions. This tactic had the effect of making the movement appear larger than it was.

Ratio of signatures to signers by day

While there was only one petition to sign in the first few days of the movement, this changed on Friday, November 9th. Over the weekend of November 10th and 11th, which was both prior to the issue reaching the mass media, the number of petition signers increased by 27,588, but the number of signatures grew by 77,139. This also helped establish the norm of signing multiple petitions. Since then, the average signer has signed more than two petitions.

More details on the data collection and county trends.

Neal Caren (neal.caren@unc.edu), Ali Eshraghi, Sarah Gaby, Brandon Gorman, Michael Good, Jonathan Horowitz, Ali Kadivar, Rachel Ramsay, Charles Seguin, and Didem Turkoglu.