Sociology 830

Demography: Theory, Substance, Techniques, Part I

Fall 2011

T & H 2:00-3:15

151 Hamilton Hall

Philip N. Cohen

211 Hamilton Hall

843-4791

pnc@unc.edu

Description: This is the first part of a two-course series serving as a graduate-level introduction to the field of demography. This course covers the foundational theories, concepts, measures, and tools used to study the core population dynamics of mortality, fertility, and migration. It will also introduce topics of interest to population researchers, including family demography. While learning some techniques to study these topics, students will also read and discuss key theoretical and empirical contributions in these fields. Class will comprise a mix of lectures, discussions, examples, and hands-on calculation.

Readings:

· Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot. 2001. Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. ISBN 1557864519.

· Hvistendahl, Mara. 2011. Unnatural Selection: Choosing Boys over Girls, and the Consequences of a World Full of Men. New York: Public Affairs.

· Other required and optional readings as indicated on the reading list.

Course Requirements: Students will be evaluated equally on four criteria: class participation, prepared reading responses, homework assignments, and a final exam.

1. Class Participation). All students are expected to actively and thoughtfully engage in class discussion and exercises.

2. Reading Notes. Students will turn in written responses to questions for assigned readings. Some weeks, responses will be in the form of formulas, computations, and explanations. Other weeks, I may simply ask for thoughtful responses to substantive questions. Class lecture and discussion will focus on these questions and students must have their notes complete prior to class.

3. Homework Assignments. Four major assignments will expose students to demographic data, techniques, and analysis.

4. Final Exam. Students will be given a take-home final exam covering the demographic theory, substance, and techniques covered in this course. The exam will be distributed on December 6 and must be returned by December 12.

Grading: Students excelling at all four components of this seminar will receive ‘H’. Students showing satisfactory mastery on all four levels will receive ‘P’. Students who consistently perform less than satisfactorily will receive ‘L’.

Course Schedule

Tues 23 Aug: Introduction & Overview

· McFalls, Joseph A. Jr. (2007). “Population: A Lively Introduction (5th Edition).” Population Bulletin 62:1. http://www.prb.org/pdf07/62.1LivelyIntroduction.pdf

Thurs 25 Aug: Defining Demography

· Crimmins, Eileen M. 1993. “Demography: The Past 30 Years, the Present, and the Future.” Demography 30(4):579-591. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2061807

· Xie, Yu. 2000. “Demography: Past, Present, and Future.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 95:670-673. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2669415

Optional:

o Swanson, David A., Thomas K. Burch, and Lucky M. Tedrow. 1996. “What Is Applied Demography?” Population Research and Policy Review 15(5/6):403-418. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40230115

Tues 30 Aug: Sources of Data: -- Reading Note 1

· Prewitt, Kenneth. 2005. “Politics and Science in Census Taking.” Pp. 3-48 in Reynolds Farley and John Haaga, eds., The American People: Census 2000. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. http://www.unc.edu/~pnc/pop/Prewitt2005.pdf

· Bryan, Thomas and Robert Heuser. 2004. “Chapter 3: Collection and Processing of Demography Data.” Pp. 43-63 in J. S. Siegel and D. A. Swanson (eds.), The Methods and Materials of Demography, Second Edition. San Diego, CA: Elsevier Academic Press. http://www.unc.edu/~pnc/pop/Bryan-Heuser2004.pdf

· Fricke, Tom. 2003. “Culture and Causality: An Anthropological Comment.” Population and Development Review 29(3):470-479. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3115285

Optional:

o U.S. Census report, “Marital Events of Americans: 2009.” Available online starting August 25, 2011.

o Presentation: “American Community Survey Fundamentals” http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Downloads/library/2009/2009_Klein_01.pdf

Thurs 1 Sep: Foundational Concepts and Measures -- Reading Note 2

· Demography, Chapter 1.

· Coale, Ansley J. 1987. “How a Population Ages or Grows Younger.” Pp. 365-369 in S.W. Menard and E.W. Moen (eds.), Perspectives on Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues. Oxford: Oxford University Press. http://www.unc.edu/~pnc/pop/Coale1987.pdf

Tues 6 Sep: Age-Specific Rates and Probabilities – Reading Note 3

· Demography, Chapter 2

· Smith, H., S. P. Morgan, and T. Koropeckyj-Cox. 1996. “A Decomposition of Trends in the Nonmarital Fertility Ratios of Blacks and Whites in the United States, 1960-1992.” Demography 33(2):141-151. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2061868

o Rates & Probabilities Assignment, Due Sep 13

Thurs 8 Sep: Life Tables I – Reading Note 4

· Demography, Chapter 3

Tues 13 Sep: Life Tables II (incarceration)

· Bonczar, Thomas P. 2003. “Prevalence of Imprisonment in the U.S. Population, 1974-2001.” Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report (NCJ 197976). http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/piusp01.pdf

· Wildeman, Christopher. 2009. “Parental Imprisonment, the Prison Boom, and the Concentration of Childhood Disadvantage.” Demography 46(2):265-280. http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/dem/summary/v046/46.2.wildeman.html

o Life Tables Assignment, Due Sep 20

Thurs 15 Sep: Mortality Transitions I (public health) – Reading Note 5

· Janet W. Salaff. 1973. “Mortality Decline in the People’s Republic of China and the United States.” Population Studies 27(3):551-576. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2173772

· Cutler, David and Grant Miller. 2005. “The Role of Public Health Improvements in Health Advances: The Twentieth-Century United States.” Demography 41(1):1-22. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1515174

Optional:

o Cohen, Philip N. “Janet W. Salaff (and the feminists China helped make).” http://familyinequality.wordpress.com/2011/01/27/janet-w-salaff/

Tues 20 Sep: Mortality Transitions II (poor countries)

· Caldwell, John C. 1986. “Routes to Low Mortality in Poor Countries.” Population and Development Review 12:171-220. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1973108

· Soares, Rodrigo. 2007. “On the Determinants of Mortality Reductions in the Developing World.” Population Development Review 33(2). http://www.jstor.org/stable/25434607

Thurs 22 Sep: Life Expectancy & Longevity

· Olshansky, S. Jay, Burce A. Carnes, and Aline Desesquelles. 2001. “Prospects of Human Longevity.” Science 291(5508)1491-1492. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/291/5508/1491.full

· James Oeppen, and Vaupel JW., Broken Limits to Life Expectancy, Science, vol. 296 (May, 2002), pp. 1029-1031.10. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/296/5570/1029.full

· Vaupel, James W, Zhen Zhang, Alyson A van Raalte. 2011. “Life expectancy and disparity: an international comparison of life table data” BMJ Open. http://bmjopen.bmj.com/cgi/reprint/bmjopen-2011-000128v1

Tues 27 Sep: Mortality Causes & Differentials

· Elo, Irma T. 2009. “Social Class Differentials in Health and Mortality: Patterns and Explanations in Comparative Perspective.” Annual Review of Sociology 35:553-572. http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-soc-070308-115929

· Preston, Samuel H. and Haidong Wang. 2006. “Sex Mortality Differences in the United States: The Role of Cohort Smoking Patterns.” Demography 43(4):631-646. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4137209

· Kort, Eric J., Nigel Paneth and George F. Vande Woude . 2009. “The Decline in U.S. Cancer Mortality in People Born since 1925.” Cancer Research 69:6500-6505. http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/69/16/6500

Thurs 29 Sep: Population Education & Health

· Desai, Sonalde and Soumya Alva. 1998. “Maternal Education and Child Health: Is there a Strong Causal Relationship?” Demography 35:71-81. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3004028

· Baker, David P., Juan Leon, Emily G. S. Greenaway, John Collins and Marcela Movit. 2011. “The Education Effect on Population Health: A Reassessment.” Population and Development Review 37(2):307-332. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00412.x/abstract

Tues Oct 4: HIV/AIDS

· Boerma, J. Ties and Sharon S. Weir. 2005. “Integrating Demographic and Epidemiological Approaches to Research on HIV/AIDS: The Proximate Determinants Framework.” The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 191: S61-S67. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30077757

· Ainsworth, M. and W. Teokul. 2000. “Breaking the silence: setting realistic priorities for AIDS control in less-developed countries.” Lancet 356(9223):55-60. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673600024405

· Hosegood, Victoria, Sian Floyd, Milly Marston, Caterina Hill, Nuala McGrath, Raphael Isingo, Amelia Crampin and Basia Zaba. 2007. “The effects of high HIV prevalence on orphanhood and living arrangements of children in Malawi, Tanzania, and South Africa.” Population Studies 61(3):327-336. http://www.jstor.org/stable/27643432

Thurs 6 Oct: Multiple Decrement Life Tables & Applications

· Demography, Chapter 4, Sections 4.1-4.3 (pp.71-80)

· Preston, Samuel H. 1975. “Estimating the Proportion of American Marriages That End in Divorce.” Sociological Methods and Research 3(4):435-. http://smr.sagepub.com/content/3/4/435

Tues 11 Oct: Fertility Measures & Concepts

· Demography, Chapter 5

· Bongaarts, John. 1975. “Why High Birth Rates Are So Low.” Population and Development Review 1:289-296. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1972225

· Bongaarts, John. 1978. A framework for analyzing the proximate determinants of fertility. Population and Development Review 4:104-132. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1972149

o Fertility Estimates Assignment, Due Oct 18

Thurs 13 Oct: Demographic Transition Theory

· Kirk, Dudley. 1996. “Demographic Transition Theory.” Population Studies 50(3):361-387. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2174639

Optional:

o Ron Lesthaeghe. 1998. “On Theory Development: Applications to the Study of Family Formation.” Population and Development Review 24(1):pp. 1-14. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2808120

Tues 18 Oct: Fertility Transitions I

· Watkins, Susan Cotts. 1986. “Conclusions.” Pp. 420-449 in Ansley J. Coale and Susan Cott Watkins (eds.) The Decline of Fertility in Europe. Princeton: Princeton University Press. http://www.unc.edu/~pnc/pop/Watkins1986.pdf

· Mason, Karen O. 1997. “Explaining Fertility Transitions.” Demography 34(4):pp. 443-454. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3038299

Optional:

o Caldwell, John C., I.O. Orubuloye and Pat Caldwell. 1992. “Fertility Decline in Africa: A New Type of Transition?” Population and Development Review 18:211-242. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1973678

o Kaa, D. J. v. d. 1996. “Anchored Narratives: The Story and Findings of Half a Century of Research into the Determinants of Fertility.” Population Studies 50(3):pp. 389-432. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2174640

Thurs 20 Oct: NO CLASS – FALL BREAK

Tues 25 Oct: Fertility Transitions II

· Smith, Herbert L. 1989. “Integrating Theory and Research on the Institutional Determinants of Fertility.” Demography 26(2):171-184. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2061518

· Axinn, William G. and Scott T. Yabiku. 2001. “Social Change, the Social Organization of Families, and Fertility Limitation.” American Journal of Sociology 106(5):1219-1261. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/320818

Thurs 27 Oct: Low fertility

· S. Philip Morgan and Miles G. Taylor. 2006. “Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty First Century.” Annual Review of Sociology 32:1-25. http://bit.ly/nyBLYB

· Cai, Yong. 2010. “China's Below-Replacement Fertility: Government Policy or Socioeconomic Development?” Population and Development Review 36(3):419-440. http://bit.ly/n64aS8

Tues 1 Nov: U.S. Family Demography

· Cherlin, Andrew J. 2010. “Demographic Trends in the United States: A Review of Research in the 2000s.” Journal of Marriage and Family 72(3):403-419. http://bit.ly/qq60pv

· Goldstein, Joshua R. and Catherine T. Kenney. 2001. “Marriage Delayed or Marriage Forgone? New Cohort Forecasts of First Marriage for U.S. Women.” American Sociological Review 66(4):506-519. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3088920

Optional:

o Schwartz, C. R. and R. D. Mare. 2005. “Trends in educational assortative marriage from 1940 to 2003.” Demography 42(4):621-646. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4147332

o Seltzer et al. 2005. “Explaining Family Change and Variation: Challenges for Family Demographers.” Journal of Marriage and the Family 67:908-925. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3600246

· Family Demography Assignment, Due November 8

Thurs 3 Nov: Second Demographic Transition

· Lesthaeghe, Ron. 2010. “The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition.” Population and Development Review 36(2):211-251. http://bit.ly/reYrD1

· Raley, R. Kelly. 2001. “Increasing Fertility in Cohabiting Unions: Evidence for a Second Demographic Transition in the United States?” Demography 38(1):59-66. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3088288

Tues 8 Nov: Sex Ratios I

· Unnatural Selection, Chapters 1-8.

Optional:

o Coale, Ansley J. and Judith Banister. 1994. “Five Decades of Missing Females in China.” Demography 31(3):459-479. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2061752

o Jha, Prabhat et. al. 2011. “Trends in selective abortions of girls in India: analysis of nationally representative birth histories from 1990 to 2005 and census data from 1991 to 2011.” Lancet 377:1921-1928. http://bit.ly/pIvNvO

Thurs 10 Nov: Sex Ratios II

· Unnatural Selection, Chapters 9-15.

Optional:

o Guilmoto, Christophe Z. 2009. “The Sex Ratio Transition in Asia.” Population and Development Review 35(3):519-549. http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122593837/abstract

Tues 15 Nov: Residential Segregation

· Charles, CZ. 2003. "The Dynamics of Racial Residential Segregation." Annual Review of Sociology 29:167-207. http://bit.ly/nIP7E8

· Rodriguez, Rudolph A., Saunak Sen, Kala Mehta, Sandra Moody-Ayers, Peter Bacchetti and Ann M. O'Hare. 2007. "Geography Matters: Relationships among Urban Residential Segregation, Dialysis Facilities, and Patient Outcomes." Annals of Internal Medicine 146(7):493-501. http://bit.ly/oudFMP

·

Thurs 17 Nov: NO CLASS – PNC at NCFR Conference

Tues 22 Nov: The Recession and U.S. Families

· NCFR Conference papers to be distributed

Thurs 24 Nov: NO CLASS - Thanksgiving

Tues 29 Nov: TBA

Thurs 1 Dec: TBA

Tues 6 Dec: Race and health

· Van den Oord, E. J. C. G. and D. C. Rowe. 2000. "Racial differences in birth health risk: A quantitative genetic approach." Demography 37(3):285-298. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2648042

· Zuberi, T. 2001. "One step back in understanding racial differences in birth weight." Demography 38(4):569-571. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3088320

· Williams, David R., Selina A. Mohammed, Jacinta Leavell and Chiquita Collins. 2010. "Race, socioeconomic status, and health: Complexities, ongoing challenges, and research opportunities." Biology of Disadvantage: Socioeconomic Status and Health 1186:69-101. http://bit.ly/pNL9hr