Patrick Chen

3/19/03

 

Future Forecast: Online Piracy

 

            Online piracy is a topic that our increasingly digital society has been wrestling with for some time and I believe will eventually change the way all information is distributed throughout our society.  Piracy of intellectual property and the prosecution of said piracy have been around for decades, however online piracy has only reached the mainstream population in the last decade.  Every since the advent of Napster, online piracy has become a society wide phenom that has already changed the lives of millions of people.   Every type of music, many movies, and an increasing number of books are available to anyone with a minimum of technical skills.  For the first time since the age of the ravaging Norse, piracy has become one of the unifying activities of our society.  Its rapid growth and unpredictable permutations have shaken the pillars of Intellectual Property Theory as we know it.

            While some would trace the roots of online piracy to the creation of the MP3, the digital format that allowed the flawlessly copying of CD tracks, or of Winamp, one of the first and most popular MP3 playing programs, the advent of Napster in June of 1999 is what really heralded the beginning of this piratical onslaught for the masses.  Much like the Crusades of the Middle Ages, once the elite (college kids and hackers) raised the banner the less technically-inclined peasants soon became the bulk of the movement.  Napster’s design was simple in that it catalogued user’s music collections and then facilitated the downloading of this material.  In other words, users would search the Napster database for a particular song and Napster would match your search to files on other user’s computers.  It would then help you to connect to that user’s computer and download the file.  In this way every song that was made available to Napster was available to everyone in the network.  This centralized system was ultimately the downfall of Napster and its modus operandi.  Since it overtly facilitated the distribution of “pirated” files it was successfully sued by a group of Music companies and musicians stopping it from allowing the free distribution of material.  Luckily for all those people who were hooked on free music, a new, decentralized piracy paradigm was born in the ashes of Napster.  P2P programs like BearShare, KaZaa, Morpheus, and a slew of others allow users to query other users directly for file availability and when a match is found that user downloads directly from the found user.  This process is demonstrated quite well by a couple of flash movies produced by a man named Yong Lee of Honeywell International:

            http://www-personal.umich.edu/~ygl/P2P/p2p_flash.html 

            http://www-personal.umich.edu/~ygl/P2P/gnutella_flash.html). 

Because of the decentralized nature of this new method of piracy, regulation of such activities has become increasingly difficult.  Because companies such as Bearshare or Gnutella merely provide software rather than actually facilitate piracy and since the software is simple enough to be easily copied, opponents of online piracy have shifted their focus towards discouraging individuals.  An example of this was when the Naval Academy seized 100 computers from midshipmen that allegedly contained pirated material based on a letter from the RIAA, Recording Industry Association of America an active opponent of online piracy (www.out-law.com).

            But what is the real damage done by this online piracy?  Unlike piracy of any other type, the kind of media piracy that users of Gnutella and Bearshare perpetrate is not the theft of any physical object or the theft of an idea for profit.  Damages are calculated based on assumptions of lost revenues.   Does downloading a song from the internet mean that you won’t buy the CD for $18?  Would you have bought it if you hadn’t been able to download a song?  Questions such as these have cast doubt on the true nature of piracy’s cost.  An interesting article by Tim O’Reilly, a publisher of technical books, voices a different theory (http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/a/p2p/2002/12/11/piracy.html).  Mr. O’Reilly posits that one could view online piracy as a kind of progressive tax on mainstream media.  Among other things, he points out that while piracy may put a slight dent into the profits of very popular acts such as a Britney Spears or Metallica, it greatly profits obscure musicians who have a heightened potential for exposure.  Therefore we could think of piracy as a progressive tax that in the long run benefits the entire industry.  I find these ideas very interesting, but feel that in the end this argument is not very important.  With the new decentralized P2P model of online piracy and the less than concrete moral implications for individuals, I don’t feel that online piracy can be shut down nor do I see much of a movement among users to voluntarily quit.

            So what does the future hold for piracy? I believe that we are experiencing the dawning days of an evolution in information distribution.  Due to the physical constraints of distributing books, movies, and CDs, media companies heavily promote only those products that they feel are right for mass consumption or that will be popular.  Bookstores can only hold so many books and radio stations can only play so many songs.  But in this new environment where file delivery can literally be at a touch of a button and as bandwidth standards and file storage norms increase, media distribution has the potential to change dramatically.  In the future I propose that rather than develop just a few mega star artists with huge promotion budgets, the music industry will have to spread their efforts over a much larger spectrum of artists.  The shift should be from companies that push music to companies that sell CDs of music already available.   As I mentioned above, the radio can only play only so many songs which is the original reason for spending so much money on promoting a select few musicians.  What does this crazy and slightly socialist vision of the future mean for the music business?  I would imagine that it would become more like the publishing industry which spends most of its time developing and scouting artists rather than promoting them.  Whatever happens I’m certain of one thing, Pandora’s Box has been opened and there is no closing it.  Piracy will not stop, so the only question is how the media industry will adapt to this new atmosphere of file sharing