Last updated: July 31 2014

Office at SAMSI: Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute,
19 T.W. Alexander Drive, P.O. Box 14006, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-4006,
Telephone 919.685.9350, Fax 919.685.9360

Office at UNC: 303 Hanes Building, Department of Statistics and Operations Research,
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3260.

Home: 4314 Oak Hill Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27514-9731.

UNC Office Phone: 919-962-2660

Home phone: 919-408-8126

Email: rls@email.unc.edu

Citizen of United Kingdom. Permanent Resident of the U.S.A.
Married with two sons.

**CAREER HISTORY**

Director of SAMSI, with effect from July 1, 2010.

Mark L. Reed III Distinguished Professor of Statistics,
University of North Carolina,
Chapel Hill, since July 2004.

Professor of Statistics, University of North Carolina,
Chapel Hill, January 1991-present (on leave, 1994-1996).

Chair of Statistics Department from July 2000 until June 2002.

Joint appointment as Professor of Biostatistics, from February 2008.

Professor of Statistical Science, Cambridge University, U.K. (1994-1996)

Professor of Statistics, University of Surrey, U.K. (1985-1990)

Lecturer in Statistics, Imperial College, London, U.K. (1979-1985)

Visiting positions in many institutions including University of Chicago,
Australian National University, Technion, etc.

**EDUCATION**

B.A. in Mathematics (First Class), Oxford University, 1972-1975 (M.A. 1985).

Ph.D. in Operations Research, Cornell University, 1975-1979.
Ph.D. Advisor: Howard M. Taylor III.

No postdoctoral position.

**HONORS**

J. Stuart Hunter Lecturer, The International Environmetrics Society, 2004.

2004 Statistical Science Award, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(awarded jointly with S. Kolenikov and L.H. Cox for the paper "Spatiotemporal
modeling of PM2.5 data with missing values", Journal of Geophysical Research
2003; 108:11-1 11-11).

Fellow, American Statistical Association, 2000.

Distinguished Achievement Medal, Section on Statistics and the Environment,
American Statistical Association, 2000.

Royal Statistical Society, Guy Medal in Silver, 1991.

Fellow, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 1991.

Member of the International Statistical Institute, 1991.

Chartered Statistician of the Royal Statistical Society, 1994.

**EDITORIAL SERVICE**

Associate Editor, * Advances in Water Resources *, 2009-.

Associate Editor, * Statistical Science *, 2006-2008.

General Editor (one of six), Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability.
Chapman and Hall/CRC Press (since 2005).

Editor, Chapman and Hall/CRC Press Series in Environmental Statistics,
from 2003.

Associate Editor of Extremes, 1997-2007.

Joint Editor of the Statistical Science Series published by
Oxford University Press, 1999-2002.

Joint Editor of the Royal Statistical Society Series published by
Oxford University Press, 1991-1999.

Associate Editor of Biometrika, 1998-1999.

Associate Editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Case Studies and Applications), 1996-1999.

Member of Editorial Board of the Applied Probability journals, 1990-1999.

Associate Editor of Technometrics, 1992-1994.

Joint Editor, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B,
1988-1992.

Associate Editor, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B,
July 1986-December 1987.

**OTHER PROFESSIONAL SERVICE**

Chair, Section on Risk Analysis, American Statistical Association
(calendar year 2010)

Member of Program Leaders' Committee for SAMSI Program on
Space-Time Analysis for Environmental Mapping, Epidemiology and Climate Change,
2009-2010.

Faculty Mentor, IMSM graduate student workshop, North Carolina State University,
July 2009.

Member of the Committee on Climate Change Policy and Statistics, American
Statistical Association, since December 2008.

Local Scientific Coordinator of SAMSI Program on Risk Analysis, Extreme Events
and Decision Theory, academic year 2007-2008.

Member of Mathematics Review Panel, Foundation for Science and
Technology (Portugal), February 18-23, 2008 (responsible for visiting 11
research units in the Lisbon area, preparing reviews and making funding
evaluations)

Co-organizer (with David Marker, Mary Christman and Doug Nychka) of the
workshop "A Statistical Consensus on Climate Change", organized and sponsored by
the American Statistical Association, October 2007.

Member of Product Development Committee for the Synthesis and Assessment Product
3.3 ("Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate"),
for the U.S. Government Climate Change Science Program, 2006-2008.

Chair of General Topics Committee for the 56th Session of the International
Statistical Institute, Lisbon, Portugal, August 22-29, 2007.

Invited participant, workshop on Health Effects of Ambient Ozone, University of
Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, N.Y., June 2007.

Member of Local Development Committee, Statistical and Applied Mathematical
Sciences Institute, North Carolina, (since 2005).

Member of the Science & Technical Advisory Committee,
Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program (since 2004)

Trustee of SPRUCE (a U.K.-based charity that organizes conferences
and workshops in environmental statistics), since 2002.

Member of National Research Council committee to review Synthesis and
Assessment Product 1.1 ("Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere:
Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences"),
for the U.S. Government Climate Change Science Program, 2005.

Chair of Program Leaders Committee, SAMSI Program on Large-Scale Computer
Models for Environmental Systems. Statistical and Applied Mathematical
Sciences Institute, North Carolina, January-June 2003.

Co-organizer (with P. Embrechts, D. Goodman and W.J. Fitzgerald)
of a three-week Newton Institute Program on
"Managing Uncertainty: New Tools for Insurance, Economics and
Finance", Cambridge University, July 23-August 10 2001.

Member of Advisory Board for the Geophysical Statistics Project,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2000-2002.

Health Effects Institute, Member of Review Panel for Particulate
Epidemiology Re-Analysis Project (1999-2000), and a Site Visit Team (2007).

Member of Environmental Statistics Committee for the International
Statistical Institute, 1998-2005.

Co-Organiser and Visiting Fellow, Program on "Nonlinear and Nonstationary
Signal Processing", Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences,
Cambridge, U.K., July-December 1998.

Chairman, Royal Statistical Society Research Section, 1995-96 session.

Member of Council, Institute of Mathematical Statistics (1995-1998).

Member of IMS Special Papers Committee 1989-1991 and
1996-1998 (chair 1998).

Member of Council, Institute of Mathematical Statistics (1995-1998).

Committee for Statistics in the Physical Sciences of the
Bernoulli Society, 1989-present.

Member of Council of the Bernoulli Society, 1987-1991.

Member of European Regional Committee of the Bernoulli Society, 1988-90.

Co-organiser (with D.R. Cox and A.P. Dawid) of the Edinburgh Workshop on
Asymptotic Statistics, July 1986.

**DEPARTMENTAL SERVICE (current)**

Director of Graduate Studies and Director of Admissions for INSTORE program.

Chair of Committee on Post-tenure Review and Promotions.

Member of Curriculum Committee.

**UNIVERSITY SERVICE**

University Research Council, Divison of Physical Sciences and Mathematics,
committee member or co-chair; Fall 2006 to Spring 2009.

Member of Fellowship Committee of the Graduate School and the
Society of Fellows Faculty Committee, since Fall 2004.

Member of Science Advisers Committee established by Associate Dean Forest,
1998-2000.

University-appointed Trustee of NISS, 2001--2004.

**PH.D. STUDENTS COMPLETED**

Jonathan P. Cohen (Imperial College, Ph.D. obtained 1982)

Anthony C. Davison (Imperial College, Ph.D. 1985, joint advisor)

H.K. Sammy Yuen (Surrey University, Ph.D., 1988)

Jonathan A. Tawn (Surrey University, Ph.D., 1988)

Linda C. Wolstenholme (Surrey University, Ph.D., 1989, joint advisor)

Z.-Q. John Lu (North Carolina, Ph.D., 1994)

Seokhoon Yun (North Carolina, Ph.D., 1994)

Steven Garren (North Carolina, Ph.D., 1994)

Melissa G. Smith (North Carolina, Ph.D., 1996, joint advisor)

Amy M. Grady (North Carolina, Ph.D., 2000)

Dan Spitzner (North Carolina, Ph.D., 2001)

Zhengjun Zhang (North Carolina, Ph.D., 2002)

Petrutza Caragea (North Carolina, Ph.D., 2003)

Francisco Chamu Morales (North Carolina, Ph.D., 2005)

Stas Kolenikov (North Carolina, Ph.D., 2005)

Michele Trovero (North Carolina, Ph.D., 2007)

Jie Zhou (North Carolina, Ph.D., 2007)

Ping Bai (Co-advisor - principal advisor was Yuong Truong;
North Carolina, Ph.D., 2007)

Elizabeth Shamseldin (North Carolina, Ph.D., 2008)

Evangelos Evangelou (joint advisor with Dr. Zhengyuan Zhu;
North Carolina, Ph.D., 2009)

Xuanyao He (joint advisor with Dr. Zhengyuan Zhu; North Carolina, Ph.D., 2009)

**CURRENT GRADUATE STUDENTS**

Brian Lopes, Ph.D. candidate

Soyoung Jeon

Xuan Li

Robert Erhardt

**CONFERENCE TALKS AND SCIENTIFIC PRESENTATIONS, 2000-2009.**

Comparing climate models with observational data:
Detection and attribution for climate means and climate extremes.
Invited speaker (4 talks) at 41st Winter Conference on Statistics,
University of Umea, March 7-11, 2010.

From theory to practice: A mathematical history of order statistics and their
application to strength of materials, economics and climate change.
Invited talk at workshop to honor Ishay Weissman, Technion, Haifa, Israel,
December 7 2009.

An overview of etxreme value theory.
Invited presentation at
Workshop on Spatial Extremes;
Bernoulli Centre, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland; November 9--13, 2009.

Invited participant in a panel discussion on Climate Change Policy.
Joint Statistical Meetings, Washington D.C., August 2-6 2009.

Estimating the Probability of Climate Change.
Organizer and speaker in invited session at European Meeting of Statisticians;
Toulouse, France, July 20--24, 2009.

Extreme Precipitation Trends over the Continental United States.
Invited presentation at
Workshop on Spatial Extremes;
Bernoulli Centre, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland; July 13--17, 2009.

Graybill conference/EVA VII at Colorado State (June 23-25).
Organizer and Discussant of an invited paper session on Geostatistics and Climate.

Extreme Precipitation Trends over the Continental United States.
Invited presentation at
Workshop on Climate Change and Extreme Value Theory,
EURANDOM and KNMI, The Netherlands, May 11, 2009

Extreme Precipitation Trends over the Continental United States.
Invited presentation at
Workshop on Effects of Climate Change: coastal systems, policy implications
and the role of statistics. Sliema, Malta, March 19, 2009

Detection and Attribution for Precipitation Trends.
Meeting of the International Detection and Attribution Group,
Boulder, Colorado, January 21-23, 2009.

Extreme Value Theory. Invited presentation at the American Meteorological Society
short course on Statistics of Extreme Events, Phoenix, January 9 2009.

Statistics for Climate Extremes.
Invited presentation at one-day meeting on
"Thinking About Potential Catastrophes from Climate Change",
National Academy of Sciences, November 6 2008.

Climate Extremes and Global Warming: A Statistician's Perspective.
Invited talk at
136th APHA Annual Meeting, San Diego, October 27 2008.

Risk and Extremes: Assessing the Probabilities of Very Rare Events.
Invited talk at
Fourteenth Army Conference on Applied Statistics, Virginia Military Institute,
Lexington, VA, October 22 2008.

Hurricanes and Global Warming.
Topic Contributed Paper session at
Joint Statistical Meetings, Denver, August 5 2008.

Multivariate Extremes and Risk.
Invited speaker and session organizer at
Interface 2008, Durham, May 22 2008.

Spatial estimation of return values in a precipitation dataset with trend.
Workshop on Precipitation Intensity Estimates in a Changing Climate,
National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, April 30, 2008.

Extreme precipitation trends over the continental United States.
Department seminar, Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison,
March 5, 2008.

Hurricanes and global warming.
Talk given to Multivariate Extremes-Methodology Workshop Group,
Statistical and Applied Mathematics Sciences Institute,
February 11, 2008.

More on multivariate extreme value theory.
Talk given to Multivariate Extremes-Methodology Workshop Group,
Statistical and Applied Mathematics Sciences Institute,
December 13, 2007.

Extreme Precipitation over the Continental United States.
Invited talk given at the American Geophysical Union Conference,
San Fransisco, December 10, 2007.

Reassessing the relationship between ozone and short-term mortality
in U.S. urban communities.
Talk given to Environmental Risk Workshop Group,
Statistical and Applied Mathematics Sciences Institute,
December 3, 2007.

Statistics of extremes: Assessing the probabilities of very rare events.
Lecture given at Undergraduate Workshop,
SAMSI program on Risk Analysis, Extreme Events and Decision Theory.
November 9, 2007.

Discussion: Understanding complexity in physical systems.
Presented at SAMSI-NSF workshop on CDI initiative.
November 1, 2007.

Overview of multivariate extreme value theory.
Talk given to Multivariate Extremes-Methodology Workshop Group,
Statistical and Applied Mathematics Sciences Institute,
October 11, 2007.

Reassessing the relationship between ozone and short-term mortality
in U.S. urban communities.
Department Seminar, UNC Biostatistics Department,
October 3, 2007.

Risk Analysis and Extremes.
Tutorial lecture at the Opening Workshop of the SAMSI program on
Risk Analysis, Extreme Events and Decision Theory.
September 16, 2007.

Extreme precipitation trends over the continental United States.
Contributed paper given at the 56th Session of the International Statistical
Institute, Lisbon, Portugal, August 24, 2007.

Precipitation extremes and spatial statistics.
Invited talk at the Tenth International Conference on Statistical Climatology.
Beijing, China, August 20, 2007.

Reassessing the relationship between ozone and short-term mortality
in U.S. urban communities.
Invited talk, Joint Statistical Meetings, Salt Lake City,
July 20, 2007.

Bayes hierarchical analysis of the EEAWHI.
Seminar at NIEHS Biostatistics Group, National Institute of
Environmental Health Science, May 15 2007.

Extreme precipitation trends over the continental United States.
Invited talk at the Spring Lecture Series, University of Arkansas, April 14 2007.

Trends in observational and model-generated precipitation extremes:
are they compatible? Talk to the International Detection and Attribution
Group, Duke University, March 14, 2007.

Extreme precipitation trends over the continental United States.
Invited talk at the 15th `Aha Huliko'a Hawaiian Winter Workshop,
Honolulu, January 24, 2007

Extreme precipitation trends over the continental United States.
Invited talk at the
Ninth Annual Winter Workshop, Environmental and Environmental Health Statistics,
Department of Statistics, University of Florida, January 12, 2007.

The CCSP report on temperature trends in the lower atmosphere.
Joint Statistical Meetings, Seattle, August 9 2006. I was a speaker and also
joint organizer (with Prof. Ed Wegman, George Mason University) of a late-breaking
session entitled "What is the role of statistics in public policy debates about
climate change?"

Discussant in a session on "Statistical and computational issues in climate research",
Joint Statistical Meetings, Seattle, August 7 2006.

Discussant of the paper "Deriving Bayesian and frequentist estimators
from time-invariant estimating equations: a unifying approach" by
Antonietta Mira and Adrian Baddeley. Eighth Valencia Meeting on Bayesian
Statistics, Alicante, Spain, June 2 2006.

Kriging with estimated parameters.
Seminar in the Statistics Department, Oxford University,
May 26 2006.

A transformed, threshold Gaussian model for precipitation extremes.
Seminar in the Atmospheric Physics group, Oxford University, May 25 2006.

A transformed, threshold Gaussian model for precipitation extremes.
National Center for Atmospheric Research, March 30, 2006.

Bayesian modeling of uncertainty in ensembles of climate models.
Hawaii International Conference on Statistics, Mathematics and
Related Fields. January 18 2006.

Kriging with Estimated Parameters.
Iowa State University, September 12 2005.

Bayesian Kriging and Bayesian Network Design.
OBayes 5 Workshop, Branson, Missouri, June 6 2005.

Kriging with Estimated Parameters.
U.C. Santa Barbara, May 10 2005.

An Overview of Environmental Statistics.
Presented at ISI "Environmental Statistics Theme Day".
55th Session of the International Statistical Institute,
Sydney, Australia, April 6 2005.

Kriging with Estimated Parameters.
UNC Statistics/OR Colloquium, January 10, 2005.

Spatial Interpolation of Airborne Particulates and its Application to
Epidemiological Studies.
Spatial Structures in Social Sciences Colloquium, Brown University,
October 8 2004.

The Design of Spatial Monitor Networks.
Joint Statistical Meetings, Toronto, August 10 2004.

Bayesian Kriging and Bayesian Network Design.
The J. Stuart Hunter Lecture, TIES 2004, ACCURACY 2004 Joint Conference,
Portland, Maine, June 30 2004.

Estimating the Mean Level of Fine Particulate Matter: An Application of
Spatial Statistics.
Boston University, April 16 2004.

Multivariate Extremes, Max-stable Processes and the Analysis of Financial
Risk. Invited participant at workshop on Statistics in Finance,
Mathematical Institute, Oberwolfach, January 14 2004.

Changepoints and Extremes. Five-minute talk given at SAMSI workshop on Network
Modeling for the Internet,October 31 2003.
Spatial Statistics in Environmental Science. Seminar, Statistical Sciences
Department, Cornell University, October 29 2003.

Approximate Likelihoods in Spatial Statistics.
Seminar, Statistical Laboratory, Cambridge University,
October 17 2003.

The Role of Statistics in Assessing the Public Health Threat of Air Pollution. Invited talk in meeting IPM-51, 54th Session of the
International Statistical Institute, Berlin, Germany, August 20 2003.

Large-Scale Computer Models for Environmental Systems. Invited talk, session on "SAMSI after one year", Joint Statistical
Meetings, August 3 2003.

Statistics of Extremes, with Applications in Environmental Science, Insurance and Finance. Plenary Lecture, First IMS-IBSA Joint
Meeting, San Juan, Puerto Rico, July 24, 2003.

Likelihood Methods in Spatial Statistics.
Invited talk at Spruce VI, University of Lund (Sweden),
June 16, 2003.

Statistics of Climate Change.
Lecture given at SAMSI Outreach meeting, June 9, 2003.

The Statistics of Extremes.
Applied Mathematics Department, University of Colorado, Boulder,
June 5, 2003.

Geostatistical Modeling. Presented at the SAMSI/GSP workshop
on Spatial-Temporal Statistics, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, CO, June 2, 2003.

Multivariate Extremes, Max-Stable Processes and the Analysis
of Financial Risk. Invited talk at the International Conference
on Reliability and Survival Analysis 2003, University of South
Carolina, May 24, 2003.

Extreme Value Statistics in Climatology.
Invited presentation at
Special DOE/NOAA Workshop on Climate Change and
Detection.
Duke University, April 24 2003.

Discussion of session on Network Design.
ENAR Spring Meeting, Tampa, FL, April 1 2003.

Data Analytic Procedures.
HEI Workshop to Improve Estimates of Diesel and Other
Emissions in Epidemiologic Studies.
Health Effects Institute, Baltimore, December 5 2002.

Statistics of Climate Change.
Lecture given at SAMSI Outreach meeting, November 9, 2002.

Discussion presented at EPA Workshop on GAM-Related Statistical
Issues in PM Epidemiology. Research Triangle Park, November 6, 2002.

The Effect of Aggregation on Estimates of Long-Range Dependence.
Presented at UNC Internet Traffic Data Study Group, October 29, 2002.

Panel Discussion on Particulate Matter Epidemiology,
Joint Statistical Meetings, New York, August 12 2002.

NSF Workshop on "Statistics: Challenges and Opportunities for
the 21st Century", at the National Science Foundation,
May 6-8 2002. Invited participant and plenary lecturer on
Statistics in the Geophysical and Environmental Sciences.

Statistics of Extremes, with Applications in Environmental Science,
Insurance and Finance. Chotley Dal and Mohra Revi Rustagi Memorial
Lecture, Ohio State University, April 30, 2002.

Spatial Modeling of Atmospheric Pollutants.
Invited talk at Interface 2002, Montreal, April 19 2002.

A Statistical Critique of the 2001 PM Criteria Document
- ENAR Spring Meeting, Arlington VA, March 18, 2002.

Extreme Values and Financial Risk Assessment - IBM Watson Research
Center, March 15, 2002.

Spatial Statistics in Environmental Science.
Three lectures given at the Troisieme Cycle Romand,
Champery, Switzerland, March 2-5, 2002.

The Assessment of Trends in Environmental and Climatological
Processes. Seminar at Florida State University, January 10, 2002.

Statistics of Extremes, with Applications in Environment,
Insurance and Finance.
Three lectures given at the SEMSTAT meeting on extreme value
theory, Gothenburg, Sweden, December 10-15, 2001.

Trends in Spatial Processes.
First Spanish Meeting on Spatio-Temporal Processes.
Bencassim, October 29. 2001.

The Assessment of Trends in Environmental and Climatological
Processes. Seminar at Colorado State University, October 17, 2001.

Extreme Values, Max-Stable Processes and Financial Risk.
UNC Statistics Department Colloquium, October 8, 2001.

Models and Computations for Nonstationary Spatial Processes.
Invited talk at 53rd Session of International Statistical
Institute, Seoul, Korea, August 22-29 2001.

Max-Stable Processes and Value At Risk.
Seminar,
Managing Risk program, Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge University,
August 9 2001.

Quantitative Methods for Bounding Low Probability/High Severity Events.
Corporate Governance Workshop,
Managing Risk program, Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge University,
August 3 2001.
(Part of a joint presentation with Dougal Goodman, Foundation for
Science and Technology.)

Large Insurance Claims and Climatological Trends.
Environmental Risk Workshop,
Managing Risk Program, Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge University,
August 1 2001.

Bayesian Threshold Modelling for Insurance and Weather Extremes.
Insurance Risks Workshop,
Managing Risk Program, Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge University,
July 26 2001.

CBMS Course in Enviromental Statistics, University of Washington,
June 25-29, 2001 (10 lectures).

Trends in Rainfall Extremes. Seminar at Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory, June 22, 2001.

ACACIA Climate Extremes workshop, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, CO, April 2001.

Advanced Workshop on Environmental Monitoring and Sampling,
Estoril, Portugal, March 2001.

NSF/NBER Time Series workshop, Fort Collins, CO, September 2000.

Fourteenth SINAPE meeting (Brazilian Statistical Society meeting),
July 2000.

AMS Summer Research Conference on "Bayesian, frequentist and
likelihood approaches to inference: a synthesis". Mount Holyoke
College, July 2000.

Fifth International Meeting of the Bernoulli Society, Guanajuato,
May 2000.

Workshop on Inference for Stochastic Processes, Athens, Georgia,
May 2000.

**RESEARCH FUNDING AT UNC**

NSF Award DMS-0605434, "Optimal Design of Experiments for Correlated
Observations" (co-PI; PI is Dr. Zhengyuan Zhu).
$218,961, 07/01/06 to 06/30/09.

American Petroleum Institute,
"Reassessing the relationship between ozone and short-term mortality
in US urban communities" (PI),
$65,332, 07/01/06 to 12/31/06.

Environmental Protection Agency,
"Effects of climate change of human health: current and future
impacts" (one of several senior investigators; PI is Dr. Adel Hanna,
Carolina Environmental Program).
$599,103 from 07/01/05 to 06/30/08

North Carolina Urban Water Consortium,
"Drought vulnerability in North Carolina: Low flow response to
expected climate and land-use change" (co-PI; PI is Dr. Lawrence Band,
UNC Department of Geography).
$65,441 from 01/01/05 to 06/30/06

NOAA award, "Statistical Assessment of Uncertainty in Present and Future
North American Climate Extremes" (PI; co-PI is Dr. Gabriele Hegerl,
Duke University). $414,981, 02/01/05 to 01/31/09 (UNC portion is $256,734).

NIH/NIEHS, The environmental epidemiology of arrythomogenesis in WHI.
One of numerous co-investigators; PI is Dr. Eric Whitsel (UNC, Department
of Epidemiology). $2,377,066, 09/08/03 to 05/31/08.

NSF Award DMS-0084375, "Spatial Modeling, Analysis and Prediction
of Nonstationary Environmental Processes." (PI)
$149,587, 2000-2004

NSF Award DMS-9971980, "Extreme Values, Time Series and Prediction" (PI).
$65,000, 1999-2001.

EPA Cooperative Agreement CR-827737-01-0, "Statistical Issues in Particulate
Matter Studies" (PI), $197,473, 1999-2001.

EPA Contract OD-5210-NAEX, "Estimating Spatial Trends in Airborne
Concentrations and Total Deposition" (PI), $45,955, 1999-2000.

NSF Award DMS-9803794, "Workshops on Nonlinear and Nonstationary Signal
Processing" (PI), $19,000, 1998-1999.

NSF Award DMS-9705166, "Significance Testing of Pattern
Correspondence Statistics" (PI), $63,000, 1997-1999 (cost-free extension
to July 2000).

NSF Award DMS-9205112, "Chaotic time series and environmental extremes" (PI).
$72,500, 1992-1995.

NSF Award DMS-9115750
(PI; joint with Professor P.J. Robinson, Department of Geography),
"Mathematical Sciences: Climatic thresholds and climate change",
$97,185, 1991-1994.

NSF SCREMS Award (jointly with G.
Simons, J.S. Marron, E. Carlstein and J. Fan), $80,000, 1990-2.

**RESEARCH FUNDING CURRENTLY PENDING**

(as of February 11 2010)

Modification of PM-Mediated Arrhythmogenesis in Populations (E. Whitsel, PI; RLS is co-Investigator). NIH/NIEHS 12/01/09-11/30/12. The objective of this study is to examine susceptibility to the arrhythmogenic effects of particulate matter (PM) air pollution contributed by common genetic variation among Women's Health Initiative clinical trial and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants.

Linkages between Climate Change, Air Pollutants, and Human Health in the US (A. Hanna, PI; RLS is co-Investigator). CDC; 9/01/09-8/31/12. This project will utilize climate models and air quality models, in conjunction with epidemiological data on mortality and morbidity, to develop associations between air pollution, meteorology and human health outcomes; to project forward the estimates of air pollution and meteorology under projected climate change; and hence to derive estimates of projected changed in mortality and morbidity under climate change, taking into account the possible consequences of climate change for increased air pollution.

**BOOKS**

M.J. Crowder, A.C. Kimber, R.L Smith and T.J. Sweeting (1991),
*Statistical Analysis of Reliability Data*. Chapman and Hall, London.

W.J. Fitzgerald, R.L. Smith, A.T. Walden and P.C. Young (editors) (2000),
* Nonlinear and Nonstationary Signal Processing *.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.

G.A. Young and R.L. Smith (2005),
* Essentials of Statistics Inference *.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.

**PAPERS PUBLISHED OR ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION**

(* denotes refereed paper or book chapter)

*B.W. Turnbull, H. Kaspi and R.L. Smith (1978), Adaptive sequential
procedures for selecting the best of several normal populations.
*J. Statist. Comput. Simul. ***7**, 133-150.

*R.L. Smith (1980), A probability model for fibrous composites with
local load sharing. *Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A ***372**, 539-553.

*R.L. Smith and S.L. Phoenix (1981), Asymptotic distributions for
the failure of fibrous materials under series-parallel structure
and equal load sharing. *J. Appl. Mechanics ***103**, 75-82.

*R.L. Smith (1982), The asymptotic distribution of the strength of a
series-parallel system with equal load-sharing. *Ann. Probab. ***10**, 137-171.

*R.L. Smith (1982), Uniform rates of convergence in extreme value theory.
*Adv. Appl. Prob. ***14**, 600-622.

*I. Gerontidis and R.L. Smith (1982), Monte Carlo generation of order
statistics from general distributions. *Appl. Statist. ***31**, 238-243.

*R.L. Smith (1982), A note on a probability model for fibrous composites.
*Proc. R. Soc Lond. A. ***382**, 179-182.

*D.G. Harlow, R.L. Smith and H.M. Taylor (1983), Lower-tail analysis of
the distribution of strength of a series-parallel system. *J. Appl. Prob.
***20**, 358-367.

*R.L. Smith (1983), Limit theorems and approximations for the reliability
of load-sharing systems. *Adv. Appl. Prob. ***15**, 304-330.

*L.N. McCartney and R.L. Smith (1983), Statistical theory of the strength
of fibre bundles. *J. Appl. Mech. ***50**, 601-608.

*S.L. Phoenix and R.L. Smith (1983), A comparison of probabilistic
techniques for the strength of fibrous materials under local load-sharing
among fibres. *Int. J. of Solids and Structures ***19**, 479-496.

*R.L. Smith, S.L. Phoenix, M.R. Greenfield, R.B. Henstenburg and R.E. Pitt
(1983). Lower-tail approximations for the probability of failure of 3-D
fibrous composites with hexagonal geometry. *Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A ***388**,
352-391.

*R.L. Smith (1983), The random variation of stress concentration factors
in fibrous composites. *J. Mater. Sci. Letters ***2**, 385-387.

*J. Malathronas, J. Perkins and R.L. Smith (1983), The availability of a
system of two unreliable machines connected by an intermediate storage
tank. *IIE Transactions ***15**, 195-201.

*R.L. Smith and H.M. Taylor (1984), Models for fibre-matrix composites
with local load-sharing. *Operations Research ***32**, 649-659.

*R.L. Smith (1984), Threshold methods for sample extremes. In *Statistical
Extremes and Applications*, edited by J. Tiago de Oliveira, Reidel,
Dordrecht, 621-638.

*R.L. Smith (1984), Properties of biased coin designs in sequential clinical
trials. *Ann. Statist. ***12**, 1018-1034.

*R.L. Smith (1984), Sequential treatment allocation using biased coin designs.
*J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B ***46**, 519-543.

*R.L. Smith (1985), Maximum likelihood estimation in a class of nonregular
cases. *Biometrika ***72**, 67-90.

R.L. Smith (1985), Probabilistic models for composites: Are there flaws in
the theory? In *Probabilistic Methods in the Mechanics and Solids and
Structures*, edited by S. Eggwertz and N.C. Lind, Springer Verlag, Berlin,
291-298.

*A.S. Watson and R.L. Smith (1985), An examination of statistical theories
for fibrous materials in the light of experimental data. *J. Mater. Sci.
***20**, 3260-3270.

*R.L. Smith and I. Weissman (1985), Maximum likelihood estimation of the
lower tail of a probability distribution. *J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B ***47**,
285-298.

R.L. Smith (1985), Statistics of Extreme Values. *Proc. 45th Session ISI*,
Paper 26.1.

*L.-J. Wei, R.T. Smythe and R.L. Smith (1986), K-treatment comparisons
with restricted randomization rules in clinical trials. *Ann. Statist. ***14**,
265-274.

*R.L. Smith and J.E. Miller (1986), A non-Gaussian state space model and
application to the prediction of records. *J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B ***48**, 79-88.

*R.L. Smith (1986), Extreme value statistics and reliability applications.
*Reliability Engineering ***15**, 161-170.

*R.L. Smith (1986), Extreme value theory based on the r largest annual
events. *J. Hydrology ***86**, 27-43.

*R.L. Smith (1986), Maximum likelihood estimation for the NEAR(2) model.
*J.R. Statist. Soc. B ***48**, 251-257.

*C.M. Goldie and R.L. Smith (1987), Slow variation with remainder: Theory
and applications. *Quart. J. Math. Oxford (2) ***38**, 45-71.

*C.M. Goldie and R.L. Smith (1987), On the denominators in Sylvester's
series. *Proc. Lond. Math. Soc. ***54**, 445-476.

*R.L. Smith and J.C. Naylor (1987), A comparison of maximum likelihood and
Bayesian estimators for the three-parameter Weibull distribution.
*Applied Statistics ***36**, 358-369.

*R.L. Smith (1987), Estimating tails of probability distributions.
*Ann. Statist. ***15**, 1174-1207.

R.L. Smith and J.C. Naylor (1987), Statistics of the three-parameter
Weibull distribution. *Annals of Operations Research ***9**, 577-587.

*R.L. Smith and I. Weissman (1987), Large deviations of tail estimators
based on the Pareto approximation. *J. Appl. Probab. ***24**, 619-630.

*R.L. Smith and M. Corbett (1987), Measuring marathon courses: an
application of statistical calibration theory. *Applied Statistics
***36**, 283-295.

R.L. Smith (1987), Statistical models for composite materials. *Proceedings
of the First World Congress of the Bernoulli Society*, edited by Yu. A.
Prokorov and V.V. Sazonov. VNU Science Press, Utrecht, Vol.2, 471-483.

*M.J. Bader, M.J. Pitkethly and R.L. Smith (1987), Probabilistic models for
hybrid composites. *Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference
on Composite Materials*, edited by F.L. Matthews, N.C.R. Buskell, J.M.
Hodgkinson and J. Morton, Vol.5, 481-495.

*P. Hall and R.L. Smith (1988), The kernel method for unfolding sphere size
distributions. *J. Comput. Phys. ***74**, 409-421.

*R.L. Smith (1988), Forecasting records by maximum likelihood. *J. Amer.
Statist. Assoc. ***83**, 331-338.

*R.L. Smith (1988), A counterexample concerning the extremal index. Letter
to the editor, *Adv. Appl. Prob. ***20**, 681-683.

*R.L. Smith (1988), Extreme value theory for dependent sequences via the
Stein-Chen method of Poisson approximation. *Stoch. Proc. Appl.
***30**, 317-328.

*S.L. Phoenix, D. Farquhar, F.M. Mutrelle and R.L. Smith (1989),
Lifetime statistics for single graphite fibers in creep-rupture.
*J. Mater. Sci. ***24**, 2151-2164.

*L.C. Wolstenholme and R.L. Smith (1989), Statistical inference about stress
concentrations in fibre-matrix composites. *J. Mater. Sci. ***24**, 1559-1569.

R.L. Smith (1989), Gringorten's formula. In *Encyclopedia of Statistical
Sciences*, edited by N.L. Johnson and S. Kotz, Supplementary Volume. Wiley,
New York, 69-70.

R.L. Smith (1989), A survey of nonregular problems. *Proc. 47th Session ISI*
Book 3, 353-372.

*R.L. Smith (1989), Extreme value analysis of environmental time series:
An application to trend detection in ground-level ozone (with discussion).
*Statistical Science ***4**, 367-393.

*R.L. Smith, J.A. Tawn and H.-K. Yuen (1990), Statistics of multivariate
extremes. *International Statistical Review ***58**, 47-58.

*A.C. Davison and R.L. Smith (1990), Models for exceedances over high
thresholds (with discussion). *J.R. Statist. Soc. ***52**, 393-442.

R.L. Smith (1990), Extreme value theory. Chapter 14 of *Handbook of
Applicable Mathematics Supplement*, edited by W. Ledermann, E. Lloyd,
S. Vajda and C. Alexander. John Wiley, Chichester, 437-472.

*A.C. Atkinson, L.R. Pericchi and R.L. Smith (1991), Grouped likelihood
for the shifted power transformation. *J.R. Statist. Soc. B. ***53**, 473-482.

*R.L. Smith (1991), Weibull regression models for reliability data.
*Reliability Engineering and System Safety ***34**, 55-77.

*R.L. Smith (1991), Optimal estimation of fractal dimension. In
*Nonlinear Modeling and Forecasting*, SFI Studies in the Sciences of
Complexity, Proc. Vol. XII, Edited by M. Casdagli and S. Eubank,
Addison-Wesley.

R.L. Smith (1992), Introduction to Gnedenko (1943), "Sur la distribution
limite du terme maximum...". In * Breakthroughs in Statistics I: Foundations
and Basic Theory*, edited by S. Kotz and N.L. Johnson, Springer Verlag,
New York, 185-194.

*H. Joe, R.L. Smith and I. Weissman (1992), Bivariate threshold methods for
extremes. *J.R. Statist. Soc. B. ***54**, 171-183.

*R.L. Smith (1992), Estimating dimension in noisy chaotic time series.
*J.R. Statist. Soc. B. ***54**, 329-351.

*R.L. Smith (1992), The extremal index for a Markov chain. *J. Applied
Probability ***29**, 37-45.

R.L. Smith (1992), The relation between Statistics and Chaos: Comment on
papers by Chatterjee and Yilmaz and by Berliner, *Statistical Science
***7**, 109-113.

N.D. Singpurwalla and R.L. Smith (1992), A conversation with Boris
Vladimirovich Gnedenko. *Statistical Science ***7**, 273-283.

R.L. Smith (1992), Comment on paper by J. Beran. *Statistical Science
***7**, 422-425.

R.L. Smith (1993), Long-range dependence and global warming. In
*Statistics for the Environment*, edited by V. Barnett and F. Turkman,
John Wiley, Chichester, 141-161.

*R.L. Smith (1993), Statistics research for the next ten years.
*Statistics and Computing*** 3**, 205-208.

*R.L. Smith and I. Weissman (1994), Estimating the extremal index.
*J.R. Statist. Soc. B ***56**, 515-128.

*R.L. Smith (1994), Nonregular regression. *Biometrika ***81**, 173-183.

R.L. Smith (1994), Multivariate threshold methods. In *Extreme Value
Theory and Applications*, edited by J. Galambos, J. Lechner and E. Simiu.
Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 225-248.

R.L. Smith (1994), Spatial modelling of rainfall data. In *Statistics for
the Environment 2: Water Related Issues*, edited by V. Barnett and F. Turkman,
John Wiley, Chichester, 19-42.

*S. Coles, J. Tawn and R.L. Smith (1994), A seasonal Markov model for
extremely low temperatures. *Environmetrics ***5**, 221-239.

*R.L. Smith and T.S. Shively (1995), A point process approach to modeling
trends in tropospheric ozone. *Atmospheric Environment ***29**, 3489-3499.

*R. Lund, H. Hurd, P. Bloomfield and R.L. Smith (1995), Climatological time
series with periodic correlation. *Journal of Climate ***8**, 2787-2809.

R.L. Smith (1995), Likelihood and modified likelihood estimation for
distributions with unknown endpoints. In *Recent Advances in Reliability
and Life Testing*, edited by N. Balakrishnan, CRC Press, Boca Raton,
455-474.

*C.-Y. Hui, S.L. Phoenix, M. Ibnabdeljalil and R.L. Smith (1995),
An exact closed form solution for fragmentation of Weibull fibers
in a single filament composite with applications to fiber-reinforced
ceramics. *J. Mech. Phys. Solids ***43**, 1551-1585.

R.L. Smith and P.J. Robinson (1995), A Bayesian approach to modelling
spatial-temporal precipitation data. *Proceedings of the Sixth
International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Galway, Ireland.*

R.L. Smith and F.-L. Chen (1996), Regression in long-memory time series.
In *Athens Conference on Applied Probability and Time Series, Volume II:
Time Series Analysis in Memory of E.J. Hannan*, edited by P.M. Robinson
and M. Rosenblatt, Springer Lecture Notes in Statistics **115**, 378-391.

*R.L. Smith and P.J. Robinson (1997), A Bayesian approach to the modelling
of spatial-temporal precipitation data. In *Case Studies in Bayesian
Statistics III*, edited by C. Gatsonis et al., Lecture Notes in Statistics
121, Springer Verlag, New York, 237-264.

*R.L. Smith (1997), Statistics for exceptional athletics records.
Letter to the Editor, *Applied Statistics ***46**, 123-127.

*Z.-Q. Lu and R.L. Smith (1997), Estimating local Lyapunov exponents.
In *Nonlinear dynamics and time series: Building a bridge between
the natural and statistical sciences*, edited by C. Cutler and D. Kaplan.
Fields Institute Communications **11**, 135-151.

*R.L. Smith, J.A. Tawn and S.G. Coles (1997), Markov chain models for
threshold exceedances. *Biometrika ***84**, 249-268.

R.L. Smith (1997), Introduction to the paper by J. Besag (1974), Spatial
interaction and the statistical analysis of lattice systems. In
*Breakthroughs in Statistics III*, edited by S. Kotz and N.L.Johnson.
Springer Verlag, New York, 1997.

J. Shreffler, J.M. Davis and R.L. Smith (1997), An initial search for
association between particulate concentrations and mortality in Phoenix.
*Proceedings of the 1997 U.S. EPA/AWMA International Symposium on
Measurement of Toxic and Related Air Pollutants*, VIP-74, Air and
Waste Management Association: Pittsburgh, 431-441.

R.L. Smith (1997), Detecting signals in climatological data.
*Bulletin of the 51st Session ISI* Book 1 pp. 211-214, 1997.

R.L. Smith and H.E. Daniels (1997), Load-sharing systems.
In *Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences *, Update Vol. 1,
edited by S. Kotz, C.B. Read and D.L. Banks, pp. 372-380.
Wiley, New York.

*W. Piegorsch, E.P. Smith, D. Edwards and R.L. Smith (1998), Statistical
advances in environmental science. *Statistical Science
***13**, 186-208.

R.L. Smith, J.M. Davis and P. Speckman (1998), Airborne particles and
mortality. Chapter 6 of *Case Studies in Environmental Statistics*, edited
by L.H. Cox, D. Nychka and W.W. Piegorsch, Springer Lecture Notes in
Statistics, 91-120.

*T.M.L. Wigley, R.L. Smith and B.D. Santer (1998), Anthropogenic influence
on the autocorrelation function of hemispheric-mean temperatures.
*Science ***282**, 1676-1679 (November 27 1998).

R.L. Smith, J.M. Davis and P. Speckman (1999), Human health effects of
environmental pollution in the atmosphere. Chapter 6 of *Statistics in the
Environment 4: Statistical Aspects of Health and the Environment*, edited by
V. Barnett, A. Stein and F. Turkman. John Wiley, Chichester, 91-115.

*R.L. Smith (1999), Bayesian and frequentist approaches to parametric
predictive inference (with discussion). In *Bayesian Statistics 6*,
edited by J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid and A.F.M. Smith.
Oxford University Press, pp. 589-612.

R.L. Smith, J.M. Davis and P. Speckman (1999), Assessing the human health
risk of atmospheric particles (with discussion).
In *Environmental Statistics: Analysing Data for Environmental Policy.*
Novartis Foundation Symposium 220. John Wiley, Chichester, 59-79.

*L.-S. Huang and R.L. Smith (1999), Meteorologically dependent trends in
urban ozone. *Environmetrics ***10**, 103-118.

*S.T. Garren and R.L. Smith (1999), Estimation of the second largest
eigenvalue of a Markov transition matrix. *Bernoulli ***6**, 215-242.

Y. Kim, D. Spitzner, Z. Zhang, R.L. Smith and M. Fuentes (1999),
Accounting for multiple pollutants in pollution-mortality studies.
*Proceedings of the ASA Biometrics Section*, 1-10.

*D.M. Holland, V. De Oliveira, L.H. Cox and R.L. Smith (2000),
Estimation of regional trends in sulfur dioxide over the eastern
United States.
*Environmetrics ***11**, 373-393.

R.L. Smith and D. Goodman (2000),
Bayesian risk analysis.
Chapter 17 of *Extremes and Integrated Risk Management,*
edited by P. Embrechts. Risk Books, London, 235-251.

R.L. Smith (2000),
Measuring risk with extreme value theory.
In *Risk Management: Theory and Practice*,
edited by M. Dempster, Cambridge University Press.
Also published as chapter 2 of *Extremes and Integrated Risk Management*,
edited by P. Embrechts. Risk Books, London, 19-35.

*R.L. Smith, Y. Kim, M. Fuentes and D. Spitzner (2000),
Threshold dependence of mortality effects for fine and
coarse particles in Phoenix, Arizona.
*Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association
***50**, 1367-1379.

*R.L. Smith, J.M. Davis, J. Sacks, P. Speckman and P. Styer (2000),
Regression models for air pollution and daily mortality: analysis of
data from Birmingham, Alabama. *Environmetrics ***11**, 719-743.

*S.T. Garren, R.L. Smith and W. Piegorsch (2000),
Reader reaction: On a likelihood-based goodness-of-fit test for
the beta-binomial model. *Biometrics ***56**, 947-949.

R.L. Smith (2000),
Spatial statistics in environmental science. Chapter 5 of,
*Nonlinear and Nonstationary Signal Processing*,
edited by W.J. Fitzgerald, R.L. Smith, A.T. Walden and P.C. Young,
Cambridge University Press, pp. 152-183.

*S.T. Garren, R.L. Smith and W. Piegorsch (2001),
Bootstrap goodness-of-fit for the beta-binomial model.
*Journal of Applied Statistics ***28**, 561-571.

M. Fuentes, R. Smith and S. Kolenikov (2001),
Models and computations for nonstationary spatial processes,
*Bulletin of 53rd Session of International Statistical Institute*,
Paper 544, Seoul, Korea, August 22-29 2001.

S. Yun and R.L. Smith (2001),
Spatial trends and spatial extremes in South Korean ozone.
* Bulletin of 53rd Session of International Statistical Institute*,
Paper 942, Seoul, Korea, August 22-29 2001.

*R.L. Smith (2002),
A statistical assessment of Buchanan's vote in Palm Beach county.
*Statistical Science ***17**, 441-457.

R.L. Smith (2003),
Invited commentary: Timescale-dependent Mortality Effects of Air Pollution.
*American Journal of Epidemiology ***157**, 1066-1070.

R.L. Smith (2003),
Data analytic approaches for modeling specific pollutants in epidemiological
studies.
In *Improving Estimates of Diesel and Other Emissions for
Epidemiologic Studies*,
eds. M.G. Costantini, D.A. Kaden, A.G. Russell, J.M. Samet and J. Warren.
HEI Communication 10, Health Effects Institute,
Cambridge, MA, pp. 153-160.

*R.L. Smith, T.M.L. Wigley and B.D. Santer (2003),
A bivariate time series approach to anthropogenic trend detection in
hemispheric time series.
*Journal of Climate ***16**, 1228-1240.

*R.L. Smith, S. Kolenikov and L.H. Cox (2003),
Spatio-temporal modeling of PM2.5 data with missing values.
*J. Geophys. Res., 108*(D24), 9004,
doi:10.1029/2002JD002914, 2003.
http://www.unc.edu/depts/statistics/postscript/rs/Smith-JGR-2003.pdf

*R.L. Smith (2003),
Statistics of extremes, with applications in environment, insurance
and finance. Chapter 1 of,
*Extreme Values in Finance, Telecommunications and the Environment*,
edited by B. Finkenstadt and H. Rootzen, Chapman and Hall/CRC Press,
London, pp. 1-78.

R.L. Smith (2003),
The role of statistics in assessing the public health threat of air
pollution.
*Proceedings of 54rd Session of International Statistical Institute*,
Session IPM_51, Berlin.
http://www.unc.edu/depts/statistics/postscript/rs/isi2003.pdf

R.L. Smith (2003),
Discussion of "Bush v. Gore...". Letter to the Editor, *Chance*
**16**, No. 4, pp. 4-5.

*S. Yun and R.L. Smith (2003),
Spatial trends and spatial extremes in South Korean ozone.
* Journal of the Korean Statistical Society* **32**: 4, 313-335.

M. Higgins, J.C. Bailar, M. Brauer, B. Brunekreef, D. Clayton, M. Feinleib,
B. Lederer and R.L. Smith (2003),
Commentary: Health Review Committee.
*Journal of Environmental and Toxicological Research, Part A* **66**,
1651-1683.

*D.M. Holland, P. Caragea and R.L. Smith (2004),
Regional trends in rural sulfur concentrations.
*Atmospheric Environment* ** 38 **, 1673-1684.

R.L. Smith (2004),
Discussion of "A conditional approach for multivariate extreme value"
by J.E. Heffernan and J.A. Tawn.
* J.R.Statist.Soc. B * ** 66**, 530-532.

*C. Tebaldi, L.O. Mearns, D. Nychka and R.L. Smith (2004),
Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis
of multimodel simulations.
* Geophysical Research Letters * ** 31 **
L24213, doi:10.1029/2004GL021276, 2004.

*Z. Zhang and R.L. Smith (2004),
The behavior of multivariate maxima of moving maxima processes.
* Journal of Applied Probability * ** 41 ** 1113-1123.

*C. Tebaldi, R.L. Smith, D. Nychka and L.O. Mearns (2005),
Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: A
Bayesian approach to the analysis of multi-model ensembles.
* Journal of Climate * ** 18 ** 1524-1540.
(Corrigendum, August 14 2005)

*E.A. Whitsel, P.M. Quibrera, R.L. Smith, D.J. Catellier, D. Liao,
A.C. Henley and G. Heiss (2006),
Accuracy of commercial geocoding: assessment and implications.
* Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations *
2006, 3:8, doi:10.1186/1742-5573-3-8.

*D. Liao, D.J. Peuquet, Y. Duan, E.A. Whitsel, J. Dou, R.L. Smith,
H.-M. Lin, J.-C. Chen and G. Heiss (2006),
GIS approaches for the estimation of residential-level ambient PM concentrations.
* Environmental Health Perspectives,***114**, Nr. 9, 1374-1380.

R.L. Smith (2006),
Discussion of the paper "Deriving Bayesian and frequentist estimators
from time-invariant estimating equations: a unifying approach" by
Antonietta Mira and Adrian Baddeley. Proceedings of the Eighth Valencia
Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, in press.

*P. Caragea and R.L. Smith (2007),
Asymptotic properties of computationally efficient alternative estimators for a class of multivariate normal models.
* Journal of Multivariate Analysis *, ** 98 **, 1417-1440.

R.L. Smith (2007), Air Pollution Risk. To appear in the
* Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Assessment*, edited by Brian Everitt and Ed. Melnick,
to be published by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

C. Tebaldi, M.D. Mastrandrea and R.L. Smith (2007), Global Warming.
To appear in the
* Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Assessment*, edited by Brian Everitt and Ed. Melnick,
to be published by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

C. Tebaldi and R.L. Smith (2008),
Characterizing the uncertainty of climate change projections using
hierarchical models. In, * Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis.*
M. West and A. O'Hagan, eds., Oxford University Press, forthcoming.

*R.L. Smith, C. Tebaldi, D. Nychka and L.O. Mearns (2009),
Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models.
* Journal of the American Statistical Association * ** 104, ** 97-116.

*R.L. Smith, B. Xu and P. Switzer (2009),
Reassessing the relationship between ozone and short-term mortality in U.S.
urban communities.
* Inhalation Toxicology * ** 21 (S2) **, 37-61.

*R.O. McClellan, M.W. Frampton, P. Koutrakis, W.F. McDonnell, S.Moolgavkar, D.W. North,
A.E. Smith, R.L. Smith8 and M.J. Utell (2009),
Critical Considerations in Evaluating Scientific Evidence of Health Effects
of Ambient Ozone: A Conference Report.
* Inhalation Toxicology * ** 21 (S2) **, 1-36.

*Shamseldin, E.C., Smith, R.L., Sain, S.R., Mearns, L.O and Cooley, D.
(2008), Downscaling Extremes: A Comparison of
Extreme Value Distributions in Point-Source and Gridded Precipitation Data.
* Annals of Applied Statistics * ** 4 (1) **, 484-502.

*Z. Zhang and R.L. Smith (2010),
On the estimation and application of max-stable processes.
* Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference * ** 140 **, 1135-1153.

*C. Park, F. Hernandez-Campos, L. Le, J.S. Marron, J. Park, V. Pipiras, F.D. Smith, R.L. Smith, M. Trovero and Z. Zhu (2010),
Long-range dependence analysis of Internet traffic. * Journal of Applied Statistics *, first published on
30 September 2010 (iFirst), DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2010.505949.

*M.J. Heaton, M. Katzfuss, S. Ramachandar, K. Pedings, E. Gilleland, E. Mannshardt-Shamseldin and R.L. Smith (2010), Spatio-temporal models for large-scale indicators of extreme weather. * Environmetrics *, ** 22 (3) **, 294-303.

*Wehner, M.F., Smith, R.L., Bala, G. and Duffy, P. (2010), The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmospheric model. * Climate Dynamics * ** 34 **, 243-247.

*Hanna, A., Yeatts, K.B., Xiu, A., Zhu, Z., Smith, R.L., Davis, N., Talgo, K.D.,
Arora, G., Robinson, P.J., Meng, Q. and Pinto, J. (2011),
Associations between Ozone and Morbidity Using the Spatial Synoptic Classification System
Environmental Health 2011, 10:49

*Erhardt, R. and Smith, R.L. (2012),
Approximate Bayesian computing for spatial extremes.
* Computational Statistics and Data Analysis * ** 56 **, 1468-1481.

*Holliday, K.M., Avery, C.L., Poole, C., McGraw, K., Williams, R., Liao, D., Smith, R.L., Whitsel, E.A. (2014),
Estimating personal exposures from ambient air pollution measures: using meta-analysis to assess measurement error.
* Epidemiology * ** 25**(1):35-43. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000006.

*Hammerling, D., Cefalu, M., Cisewski, J., Dominici, F., Parmigiani, G., Paulson, C. and Smith, R.L. (2014),
Completing the Results of the 2013 Boston Marathon.
* PLoS ONE * ** 9**(4): e93800.

*Craigmile, P.F., Guttorp, P., Lund, R., Smith, R.L., Thorne, P.W. and Arndt, D. (2014),
Warm streaks in the U.S. temperature record: What are the chances?
*Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. *
Published online : 19 MAY 2014, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD021446

*Erhardt, R.J. and Smith, R.L. (2014),
Weather derivative risk measures for extreme events.
* North American Actuarial Journal*, DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2014.910472

**BOOKS IN PREPARATION **

I. Weissman and R.L. Smith,
* Extreme Values: Theory and Applications. *
Under contract, Chapman and Hall/CRC Press.

R.L. Smith, *Environmental Statistics*. Presented as a CBMS
lecture series at the University of Washington, June 2001.
Currently under revision for book publication. Current version
available from
http://www.unc.edu/depts/statistics/postscript/rs/envnotes.pdf

R.L. Smith and K.D.S. Young, * Linear Regression *.
Near completion.

**PAPERS IN REVIEW OR UNDER REVISION**

P. Caragea and R.L. Smith (2007),
Approximate Likelihood for Spatial Processes.
Under revision for Technometrics.

X. He, Z. Zhu and R.L. Smith (2008),
Asymptotic Comparison of Predictive Densities for Dependent Observations.
Technical Report UNC/STOR/08/01. Under revision.

E. Evangelos, Z. Zhu and R.L. Smith (2008),
Asymptotic Inference for Spatial GLMM using High-order Laplace Approximation.
Under revision for JRSSB.

J.L. Crooks, E.A. Whitsel, D.J. Catellier, D. Liao, P.M. Quibrera and
R.L. Smith (2008), Hierarchical models for the effect of spatial interpolation
error on the inferred relationship between ambient particulate matter exposure
and cardiovascular health. Submitted for publication; currently undergoing revision.

**RECENT UNPUBLISHED MANUSCRIPTS**

M. Fuentes and R.L. Smith (2001),
A new class of nonstationary spatial models.
Unpublished.
http://www.unc.edu/depts/statistics/postscript/rs/nonstat.pdf

P. Guttorp, L. Sheppard and R.L. Smith (2001),
Commentary on EPA Particulate Matter Criteria Document.
Technical report at University of Washington.
http://www.unc.edu/depts/statistics/postscript/rs/comm2.pdf

A. Grady and R.L. Smith (2003),
A higher order expansion for the joint density of the sum and the
maximum under the Gumbel domain of attraction.
http://www.unc.edu/depts/statistics/postscript/rs/gradysmith.pdf

**MANUSCRIPTS IN PREPARATION**

R.L. Smith (2009), A transformed, thresholded Gaussian model for precipitation extremes
(tentative title). Shortly to be submitted.

R.L. Smith, A. Grady and G. Hegerl (2009), Extreme precipitation trends over the
continental United States (tentative title). Shortly to be submitted.

G. Hegerl, F. Zwiers, X. Zhang and R.L. Smith,
Statistical challenges in the attribution of changes in large-scale rainfall to causes.
In preparation.